The Green Bay Packers don’t shy away from raw, toolsy prospects. They know players take time to develop in the NFL, so they feel it makes sense to select players with the highest possible upside. For example, that’s why they drafted Rashan Gary and Jordan Love, players who became full-time starters in the final parts of their rookie contracts.
And it looks like that’s also their plan for Lukas Van Ness. Their 13th-overall pick from this year’s draft is strong and powerful, but everything expected a steep learning curve. The tape from the Green Bay’s first preseason game against the Cincinnati Bengals made one thing very clear: The Packers, and their fans, need to be patient.
Lance Zierlein wrote Van Ness’ NFL.com draft profile and highlighted that bullrush was his only move at that point. And that was confirmed in Cincinnati.
Van Ness needs to work on hand attacks for quicker block shedding and to diversify his rush beyond bull-rush challenges. Van Ness is more of a splash player than consistent force on tape, but he possesses projectable traits that should allow for continued ascension as a pro.
In terms of physical talent and upside, Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst compared Van Ness to Rashan Gary.
“Both big, fast, long, powerful athletes,” Gutekunst mentioned after the first round. “I think they will complement each other well.”
However, Gary played only 23% of Green Bay’s defensive snaps as a rookie. He was fourth on the depth chart, not only behind Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith, but also Kyler Fackrell. He became a genuine rotational piece in 2020, jumping to 44% of the defensive snaps.
Gary only became a full-time starter in 2021, and mostly because Za’Darius Smith lost almost the entire season to injury. The young edge rusher became the Week 1 preferred starter only in his fourth year in the league. It’s difficult to know if Van Ness will demand this much time, but the tape indicates he won’t produce much as a rookie unless he’s able to accelerate his development.
As an outside observer, we can’t know for sure if Van Ness was attacking the offensive line the way he did on his own or if the coaching staff asked him to do it. However, analyzing what Green Bay’s other edge rushers do and how the defense tends to operate, it’s probably fair to say that it was a player’s decision.
The play below is a good example. He attacked trying to reach the backfield without reading the play, and the run flowed how the Bengals wanted.
The worst play, though, was a pass rush. Van Ness looked undisciplined, jumped over a teammate, and when the plays developed to the left side with a second reaction from the quarterback, the Packers rookie didn’t even know where the ball was. He has to reset and move in another direction.
But Van Ness’ bullrush and power are impressive, and he showed what he can do on Family Night.
However, it’s difficult to be a significant rotational piece with just one move against starting tackles, especially if for someone undisciplined to attack gaps.
Van Ness played 20 defensive snaps (31%) against the Bengals, the third most among Green Bay edge defenders, behind Kingsley Enagbare and undrafted rookie Keshawn Banks. The first-rounder, though, was the fourth in the rotation. He got in the game after Preston Smith, Justin Hollins, and Enagbare — and we have to consider that Rashan Gary is expected to be back early in the season.
Right now, Lukas Van Ness appears to be the fifth Packers edge rusher. And this is a good place for both the rookie and the team. “Hercules” has time to develop, and he needs it. Behind so many talented rushers, and especially in an evaluation season for the Packers, Van Ness can work on his skills and reads until he’s ready to play without being exposed. At the same time, Green Bay can have a solid rotation and can use the rookie solely in favorable situations to help his NFL development.
The draft pick made sense, considering how valuable the edge defender position is and how high Van Ness’s ceiling is expected to be. Just don’t expect much in his rookie season. Van Ness still has a long way to go.
