Getting pick No. 13 from the New York Jets seemed like a tall order. But Brian “Diamond Hands” Gutekunst got that, along with a haul of other picks, in exchange for Aaron Rodgers.
Of course, it took the Green Bay Packers a pick swap (from No. 15) to get there, but moving up two spots is still a massive gain. Gutekunst fought for the pick swap, telling the media on Monday, “If I were to do that, I would be doing that because I thought it was important.”
On paper, the move would be significant because it allows Green Bay to target a player at 13 who may not be available at 15, such as Ohio State wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, or a player who falls out of the top 10. But what if the opposite is true? What if the Packers are in a better position to find a partner and trade down for a greater haul by moving up? Moving up to move down might seem backward, but it could work out in Green Bay’s favor.
The Packers may have a few players they’d like to target at 13, like Smith-Njigba, or perhaps one of the draft’s top offensive tackles like Broderick Jones or JSN’s teammate Paris Johnson. The board could still fall in a way where they’d have to trade up even further to get those players. In that case, they’d be better off taking advantage of another team’s needs by looking for a trade-down partner.
It’s important to look at the needs of the teams in the 13 to 15 span. Thanks to the pick swap, the Packers jump the New England Patriots and the Jets in the draft order. New England has similar offensive needs to Green Bay. They need to get some protection and weapons for Mac Jones, who struggled in 2022 thanks to a lack of a real offensive coordinator. Meanwhile, New York needs to add talent at offensive tackle to protect their new starting quarterback, 39-year-old Aaron Rodgers.
The Packers could definitely use a top-tier offensive tackle (this also applies to all teams). While the team looks set at the position for this season, David Bakhtiari‘s status after 2023 is uncertain, Yosh Nijman might price himself out of Green Bay next off-season, and Zach Tom‘s best spot on the line has yet to be determined. It would make a lot of sense for the Packers to consider a tackle at 13.
But they might instead address other needs in the first round, or they might feel more comfortable with their future OT group than I am. If the top tackles are still on the board, they could easily find a trade partner eager to jump New England and the Jets, knowing those two teams could take tackles back-to-back. That’s something they likely couldn’t do at 15.
It’s been mentioned multiple times, but the view on this class is that it just isn’t that strong at the top, with a paucity of true blue-chip players. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t great players, and teams will often love a player beyond the general consensus. Green Bay might find themselves in a spot where spending 13 on a player feels like a reach, but there are other players outside of their needs or athletic thresholds another team may covet.
Let’s say the Tennessee Titans take JSN at 11 but Zay Flowers is still available when the Packers are on the clock at 13. Flowers looks like a dynamic player who can succeed in the NFL but likely isn’t on Green Bay’s board thanks to his smaller stature. That doesn’t mean New England won’t want Flowers, and, again, a team might want to jump them. The Packers could get extra draft capital just by passing on a player not on their board.
Need and value may simply not align for the Packers at 13. Brian Gutekunst mentioned edge and tight end as two deep position groups they could look at. And Green Bay hasn’t exactly disguised their interest in this year’s deep tight end class. The top edge rushers will go in the top 10, leaving the next tier available when they pick. Tight end is generally best left to later rounds, but it seems like the position is seriously in play for the Packers. But they may not like the value at 13. The answer would be to find a trade partner and still have your choice of options later in the round.
I’ve always believed trading down in this draft is the best option for the Packers, unless a few key players are available. The more cheap, young talent the team can surround Jordan Love with the better. Even at positions of dire need, it’s best to attack the position with multiple players through the draft than to trade up and risk it all for one guy.
Just moving up two spots greatly increases the chance Gutekunst can trade down. New England and New York have obvious areas of need that a hungry team can exploit. But depending on how the board falls, a player could slip and another team could get greedy. Think of Gutekunst’s first year, when the New Orleans Saints moved up for Marcus Davenport and the Packers ended up with Jaire Alexander. If Gutekunst can stay patient and happily take other teams’ calls, Green Bay could find themselves with an impressive hoard of picks.
