The Green Bay Packers took a healthy swing at some of their biggest needs in last month’s NFL Draft, landing three wideouts, two tight ends, and a pair of interior defensive lineman in their 13 selections. In typical Packers fashion, they turned a blind eye to the Jaxon Smith-Njigba buzz with their premium pick and brought in edge-rusher Lukas Van Ness 13th overall.
Excluding the bonafide curveball that came out of Roger Goodell’s basement when they selected Jordan Love, each of Brian Gutekunst’s first-round picks have followed roughly the same formula – defenders at high-value positions with elite measurables. In addition to meeting those criteria, the Van Ness pick bears an eerie resemblance to the first-round edge Gutekunst brought in back in 2019, a man who has now decisively earned the over $100 million extension he should (and likely will) receive.
The Packers took Rashan Gary 12th overall out of the Big Ten, coming out of college with an eye-popping combine despite not being particularly overwhelming on the stat sheet. Just over a month earlier, the Packers had uncharacteristically shelled out $118 million at the position in free agency, signing Preston and Za’Darius Smith. However, after Gary endured somewhat of a slide, having been widely expected to be a top-10 pick, Green Bay pulled the trigger. In doing so, they flipped a substantial weakness into a position of strength in only a month and a half.
It didn’t start out amazing. Finding reps was tricky as letting young talent learn by doing has more impactful consequences on a 13-3 team. However, that’s a barrier Van Ness is unlikely to face. He’s a projected starter ahead of what is expected to be a rebuilding year.
Za’Darius Smith delivered a pair of elite seasons in the green and gold, but he struggled to get on the field ahead of his departure last offseason. Thrust into the spotlight in 2021 and 2022, Gary has amazed. He’s developed into an elite pass-rusher over a multi-year period – the prototypical arc for the type of pick he was. Before his season-ending ACL tear, he was climbing DPOY odds charts, chasing the likes of Micah Parsons and Nick Bosa. Through eight games, he put up six sacks and 38 pressures.
Now, it’s time for him to get paid. He’s become a cornerstone of the defense alongside Jaire Alexander, and his extension should surpass that of Maxx Crosby, who got four years and $94 million from the Las Vegas Raiders. Another reason to suspect it’ll get done before this season is that it’ll save up to $7.9 million against the cap, per online expert Ken Ingalls. That’s because he is set to play on the fifth-year option, which guarantees a $10.9 million salary and an equivalent cap hit. An extension would allow the Packers to spread out his cap hit as they see fit and lock up their star for the long haul.
As for his injured knee, signs are pointing towards a good ongoing rehab process and a full recovery. Despite enduring complications related to star left tackle David Bakhtiari’s ACL surgery a couple years back, Green Bay had no problem handing Elgton Jenkins a four-year, $68 million extension last offseason amid his rehab from a torn ACL, a deal that now looks pretty team-friendly given those that have come after it.
Like Gary, Van Ness was drafted out of the Big Ten, one pick back at No. 13. His appeal is also far more rooted in his Relative Athletic Score (RAS) than what he put on the stat sheet at Iowa. Interestingly, he didn’t start any games over his two seasons, because he was stuck behind some upper-classmen. With Preston Smith getting to that point in his career and Joe Barry’s unit rolling out a really rough pass rush after Gary went down last season, it was ideal timing for Green Bay to jumpstart a fresh Rashan Gary arc, while preparing to extend the Rashan Gary they already have.
In addition to being selected one pick apart, at the same position, out of the same conference, and with the same general appeal, Gary and Van Ness both played more on the interior in their college careers. In Gary’s case, he was viewed as having played out of position, with defensive end being a more natural fit for his tools. With Van Ness, however, the Packers plan to take advantage of his versatility by getting him some looks both inside and outside. Gutekunst hinted that this could take a similar form to the way the Packers used Za’Darius Smith. Smith frequently rushed the A gap from an upright stance, hunting favorable matchups, which also created a lot of stunting opportunities along that defensive line.
Playing across from Gary, next to last year’s 28th-overall pick, Devonte Wyatt, and in front of another 2022 first-rounder in Quay Walker, Van Ness will have the opportunity to develop alongside a hungry batch of high-upside talent in the trenches. It’s a narrative that’s been out there for a couple seasons now, but the pieces are absolutely there for the Packers to put together a vicious campaign on the defensive end and work to form a new identity post-Aaron Rodgers. If things go according to plan, the sheer athleticism on the defensive front should make Justin Fields’ life hell for years to come and ensure that the Packers continue to score victories at Soldier Field, even though Chicago’s owner might be out of their lives for good.
