At the start of the season, Jordan Love and the NFL Most Valuable Player Award are not words anyone would have put together in a sentence. But ever since the Minnesota Vikings beat the Green Bay Packers and dropped them to 2-5, Love has helped guide the Packers to a 4-1 record. On Sunday night, he out-dueled MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs.
Love has turned his season around. The Packers had a 2-6 record in the first seven weeks, and Love had a 1.25 touchdown-to-interception ratio, with 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Love had only eclipsed 250 passing yards in one game when he threw for 259 in a Week 3 victory over the New Orleans Saints.
But Jordan Love has been a different player since Week 7:
Love’s heating up. He’s so hot that there has been buzz around him potentially becoming the NFL MVP.
While the Utah State product’s overall numbers don’t rank at the top of the league, he’ll climb the charts if he continues to play the way he has over the past few weeks.
Love is currently:
- 29th in Completion% – 61.3
- 12th in Yards – 2,866
- 15th in Yards/Game – 238.8
- 6th in TDs – 22
- 6th (most) INTs – 10
- 15th in QBR – 58.3
- 17th in Passer Rating – 90.2
- 17th in QB PFF grade – 74.1
Those aren’t MVP-level statistics. But if Love keeps it up, he could put himself near MVP-level numbers. Love is on pace to finish the year with over 4,000 yards, 31 TDs, and 14 interceptions. Would that be enough to be worthy of the NFL MVP?
Let’s look at the past winners:
- 2022: Patrick Mahomes
- 2021: Aaron Rodgers
- 2020: Aaron Rodgers
- 2019: Lamar Jackson
- 2018: Patrick Mahomes
- 2017: Tom Brady
- 2016: Matt Ryan
- 2015: Cam Newton
- 2014: Aaron Rodgers
- 2013: Peyton Manning
Last season, Mahomes finished the year with 5,250 passing yards, 41 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. The year before, Rodgers finished with 4,115 yards, 37 touchdowns, and only four interceptions. And in the year after the Packers drafted Love, Rodgers recorded 48 touchdowns, 4,300 yards, and only five interceptions.
There’s no doubt that the MVP is going to a quarterback, and the MVP winner is usually at the helm of a pretty darn good team. Mahomes’ Chiefs were 14-3 and in first place in the AFC; Rodgers led the Packers to a 13-3 record in both seasons he won MVP.
Love is at a disadvantage because the Packers can’t finish any better than 11-6 this season. The Packers won’t be one of the top teams in the NFL. Even if Love somehow puts up the numbers to be in contention, the record of the team he is leading will hold him back.
Love played his two best games of the season in the past two weeks. If he maintains his elite play, he could outpace even the numbers he’s on track for, especially given the relative softness of the remaining schedule. Love recorded back-to-back weeks with elite PFF grades and was PFF’s highest-rated passer in Week 13.
Both Jackson and Mahomes were young QBs who had just begun starting for their teams. Jackson won it in his second season starting, and Mahomes won it in his first. While this is technically Love’s fourth year, it’s his first year starting, and that does not take him out of contention for winning this award.
There are other obstacles in his way. According to Vegas Insider, Love is 15th in MVP odds at +12500. That means a $100 bet would win $12,500. Edge rusher Myles Garrett, receiver Tyreek Hill, and a plethora of other quarterbacks are ahead of Love.
Two prolific passers on the NFC’s two best teams have the best odds. Dak Prescott has the best odds of winning MVP at +300. Right behind him is Mr. Irrelevant himself, Brock Purdy. These QBs are leading their teams to 9-3 records and are on division leaders.
Prescott is the league leader in touchdowns with 26, and Purdy is not far behind him at 23, fourth in the league. They are also in the top ten in total yards. Prescott has the best touchdown-to-interception ratio in the NFL this season. That’s probably why he sits slightly ahead of the pack in terms of MVP odds.
Love is on pace to have the yards to qualify for MVP. However, he’ll have to rack up touchdowns in the last five weeks of the season while taking care of the ball to stay in the MVP conversation.
Is Jordan Love going to win the NFL MVP this year? No, probably not. Love would have to put together a pretty incredible run to close out the season to win MVP. Still, the fact that we’re even considering him to be in the conversation would have sounded heinous just a few weeks ago.
All stats and data via ESPN unless otherwise noted.
