The Green Bay Packers made the choice to forge ahead with youth at the wheel of their offense this season. A tight cap space may have helped make this decision, but it was a conscious choice by Brian Gutekunst and Matt LaFleur.
So far, we’re seeing the downside of that philosophy. Everything this year has been so difficult to evaluate in a vacuum because of how few things are going correctly. The Packers banked on their young pass-catchers getting above the curves and making plays early, but mental mistakes and wrong routes have overshadowed the flashes of promise.
But a “young team” doesn’t just mean rookies. The Packers might have the league’s youngest squad, but it doesn’t mean everyone is a wee little baby. Third- and fourth-year players make up a significant part of an NFL roster, and its that jump when young players go from greenhorns to core players.
Unfortunately, the Packers aren’t getting much from their relatively more experienced players still on rookie deals. Fans already malign the 2020 draft class, in particular, and it isn’t doing much for this young core. That class should be the skeleton of this roster, but dem bones are quickly turning to dust.
Generally, a good class has three long-term quality starters or reliable backups. The 2020 class will be lucky if one pans out. The Green Bay Packers drafted nine young men in that class: QB Jordan Love, RB AJ Dillon, TE Josiah Deguara, ILB Kamal Martin, OL Jon Runyan Jr., OL Jake Hanson, OL Simon Stepaniak, S Vernon Scott, and DE Jonathan Garvin. The Packers used their fourth-round pick to trade up for Love.
Martin, Hanson, Stepaninak, Scott, and Garvin are no longer with the team. All five are Day 3 picks, which have a lower hit rate. Still, it’s jarring that most of the class didn’t make it through their rookie deals. Stepaniak never played a snap with the team.
Three of the remaining four members were Day 1 and 2 picks. We’ll skip Love for a moment and look at the other three first.
Many experts considered Dillon a reach at the time. However, we got a glimpse of why the Packers took Dillon later that winter in a breakout game against the Tennessee Titans. Aaron Jones was the shifty, big-play back, and Dillon was the cold-weather bruiser, a big back who could get those tough yards, especially in the winter.
Dillon built on a good rookie showing with a nice sophomore season, and it looked like the Packers had one of the best one-two punches at running back. But Dillon regressed last year. He became easier to take down, less impactful in the passing game, and less explosive overall. That’s continued into 2023. However, he’s looked more decisive in the past few weeks.
Although Dillon has been one of the only elements of the offense somewhat working in the past few games (even being a leading receiver!), he’s not making many explosive players, and his average yards after catch is still underwhelming. It’s been hard for anyone to run behind Green Bay’s offensive line. Still, Dillon has an uphill battle to earn a second contract.
The Packers have struggled finding stud tight ends since losing Jermichael Finley, and Deguara looks like another failed attempt. His promising rookie campaign ended early with a torn ACL, slowing his development.
Deguara was meant to fill an H-back/fullback type role for the Packers. A third-round pick might be rich for that role, but it has value in Matt LaFleur’s offense. Unfortunately, Degaura struggled to find playing time, and he would drop passes or miss blocks when he got chances. He was in Aaron Rodgers‘ doghouse, but it looked like he might have better chances with Jordan Love under center.
That hasn’t happened. Rookie Luke Musgrave has been Green Bay’s main starter, and Deguara is barely out-snapping third-round rookie Tucker Kraft. Love has only targeted him seven times, even though he’s caught each one. Still, Deguara isn’t looking to be a reliable target for Love, and his blocking leaves too much to be desired.
Runyan looked like the brightest spot from this draft class, becoming a mostly reliable starter as early as his rookie season. Runyan dabbled with both guard spots, eventually settling into the preferred starter at right guard once Elgton Jenkins went back to left guard.
Unfortunately, Runyan is having the worst year of his career. He’s part of the problem with the offensive line, having notched three penalties and given up an alarming number of pressures. His run-blocking has been below average. In the final year of his deal, Runyan is starting to look awfully replaceable.
Even with all the negatives of this class, it’s a victory if Jordan Love works out. One player isn’t the ideal hit rate, but if that player is a starting quarterback, nothing else matters. The Packers have technically already extended Love, but he’s still proving himself the way his classmates are. Evaluating him goes beyond the scope of this particular piece, but it’s safe to say Love isn’t a proven starter yet. His surrounding cast is letting him down. But he, too, faces an uphill battle.
Of the Day 1 and 2 picks, there was a running joke that the class would have looked much better if the top guys were picked one round later, and they had taken a stud linebacker or wide receiver in the first. Even if that was true, this class is still looking like a massive bust. Not a single player other than Love may see a second contract in Green Bay, and Love’s future is far from guaranteed. The 2020 class should have been a foundation for this young Packers roster. Instead, it’s another obstacle.
