The Green Bay Packers have played nice so far. They have been trying to negotiate in good faith and to send quarterback Aaron Rodgers where he wants to be. But at some point soon, it will be time to expand the market and show both Rodgers and the New York Jets they aren’t going to get played. At some point, the Packers should shop Rodgers around and see what happens from there.
When the Packers allowed the Jets to meet Aaron Rodgers in early March, it was surprising that the parties didn’t have the parameters of a deal in place. In comparison, last year, the Houston Texans made it clear that only teams willing to give up at least three first-round picks could talk to Deshaun Watson. The Cleveland Browns only included minor details in the deal to finalize it, but the core of the deal was in place.
In the end, though, there is a possibility that there were some parameters in place. According to Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports, the Packers and the Jets had established what the trade would look like. In terms of value, it would include a 2023 third and a 2024 guaranteed first-round pick. But according to Robinson, Jets owner Woody Johnson backed off of the deal when Rodgers, on The Pat McAfee Show, said he was “90% retired” before entering the darkness retreat.
That’s all strange. First, because if it’s true, it’s a clear intent to manipulate the market.
The Jets should know better
The first point about this case is: How did the Jets leave the meeting with the expectation that Aaron Rodgers would play for two more years and then change their minds because of an appearance on a show?
If a team is privately talking to a soon-to-be 40-year-old player, it’s safe to assume a primary topic of conversation will be how much longer he intends to play, especially when this player has mentioned retirement multiple times in the last couple of years. During an 11-hour conversation, it’s unrealistic to think they didn’t talk about this topic.
Rodgers’ intentions
Before going into the darkness retreat, Rogers also said on The Pat McAfee Show that he was undecided about his future. However, he never mentioned any clear indication he was leaning toward retirement.
“I’m still in the art of contemplation about my future,” Rodgers said, “but after this self-reflection, I feel like I’ll be closer to a final, final decision. … Contemplate all things my future and then make a decision that is best for me moving forward in the highest interest of my happiness.”
Before and after the darkness retreat, the perception was Rodgers was coming back to another season because retirement means he would leave almost $60 million in guarantees behind him.
Then, after his meeting with the Jets, Rodgers went on McAfee again, saying his intention was to play in New York. However, he was “90% retired” and changed his mind after sensing a change in direction from the Packers management when he came back to light.
In the same interview, Rodgers also said he had sensed during last season a willingness from the Packers management to move on from him — but both things can’t be true at the same time. Either he sensed this willingness during last season, or things changed after he got out of the retreat.
Market effect
Initially, it was expected that multiple teams would be interested in Rodgers. That’s obvious to a point, considering how the quarterback can elevate a team. And that was the scenario in early March. At least the New York Jets and the Las Vegas Raiders showed interest in negotiating with the Packers. After Rodgers said his intention was to play for the Jets, the negotiation changed because other teams didn’t have as much willingness to part ways with draft capital if the player wanted to be elsewhere. And Rodgers only stated his desire to be a Jet after the meeting in California.
So the sequence of events is the parties had the parameters of a deal, so the Packers allowed the meeting to happen. Then the meeting incentivized Rodgers to make a decision, wanting to be traded to the Jets. This changed the complexity of the market because other teams were out. And then the Jets backed off of the initial agreement, citing a media appearance. It’s all very strange and correlated.
What the Packers should do
While Aaron Rodgers can decide if he’s gonna play or not, he can’t decide where he’s gonna play because his contract doesn’t have a no-trade clause. Presumably, no team would want to part ways with draft capital without knowing if Rodgers wants to play for them, but that’s how conditionals come into play, and this is the only chance the Packers have to take back control of the situation.
In the last weeks, there were rumors about the San Francisco 49ers and the New England Patriots potentially wanting to enter the Rodgers sweepstakes if things with the Jets go south. Well, things have gone south.
The Packers can start calling those teams right now and offer Rodgers for a conditional pick in 2024. If Rodgers plays, Green Bay receives the compensation next season. If he doesn’t, the acquiring team wouldn’t have to pay the Packers anything. Aaron Rodgers could decide if he would play or not, but if he doesn’t, he would leave $60 million behind. So, the Packers and the new team wouldn’t have to pay him anything else. The trade could be executed after June 1, so the Packers would gain an extra $24 million in cap space this year, which is probably more valuable than a mid-round pick. And it’s reasonable to think the Patriots, for instance, would love to interfere with the Jets’ plans.
Maybe no trade negotiation with other teams would evolve. Maybe Aaron Rodgers will publicly say he wouldn’t play wherever else to affect the Packers’ action. But Green Bay needs to be more proactive in sending a message to the Jets. If they want a quarterback who gives them a real shot at winning the Super Bowl, they should be willing to pay market price. And good luck with the alternatives.
