With the Super Bowl out of the way, it’s officially draft szn!
More so than any other team in the league, the Green Bay Packers loooove their draft picks. The Green Bay organization is a picturesque example of the draft-and-develop philosophy. Unsurprisingly, you need a lot of draft picks for this philosophy. The Packers haven’t had fewer than seven picks in a draft since 2004. Since becoming general manager of the Packers in 2018, Brian Gutekunst has made a whopping 48 selections.
Somehow, despite constantly having more than the average of seven selections, the Packers generally still find a way to fit most of their selections on their 53-man roster. But not all of these players are actually good. Draft-and-develop is great when you’re getting a nice Rashan Gary. But, more often, you’re getting an Amari Rodgers.
The NFL is ever-evolving, and between contract structures and limited cap space, it’s a good practice to get maximum value for those draft picks. Sometimes, that means trading those picks for proven players rather than rolling the dice on another seventh-round cornerback. Successful teams are getting great-if-short-term value from using their picks on impactful role players, and it’s time for the Packers to start following suit. I also, personally, am not ready to be bombarded with mock drafts for the next two months, so let’s explore the idea of getting rid of some of these draft picks, shall we?
This isn’t a call for the Packers to go full Los Angeles Rams and get rid of every draft pick. The Rams have never had a first-round draft pick in the Sean McVay era because they aggressively trade for players that can help their team immediately. “Eff them picks” worked in the short term for the Rams, who got their Super Bowl in 2021. However, it took a ton of small factors going their way, and the team’s future outlook is bleak.
But what successful teams have done is spend later-round draft capital on established veteran role players to patch up their immediate weaknesses. It’s something we saw a lot of in the Super Bowl-winning New England Patriots squads and a technique that continues to be popular today. A large reason for the Philadelphia Eagles’ success this season was thanks to GM Howie Roseman’s constant roster tinkering.
The Eagles made only five selections in the 2022 draft and currently have six picks for 2023. Philadelphia acquired a second first-round pick for 2023 thanks to a savvy trade with the New Orleans Saints last season, but they spent a decent amount of their own draft capital on players who helped them reach the Super Bowl, including spending a fifth and sixth on safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson and a fourth on defensive end Robert Quinn. Roseman also supplemented these trades by constantly adding free agents, including bolstering their defensive line with Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph.
That sort of aggressive roster-building is crucial in today’s NFL. It isn’t uncommon to see a desirable deal made at a reasonable price and wonder why the Packers couldn’t have made the same bargain. Trading draft picks away is anathema to the Green Bay philosophy, but after coming up short so many times in recent years, they need to change their approach.
Drafting a good player, having him play well right away, and adding value to your team on an affordable rookie contract is the dream. But every draft pick, even an alleged “sure thing” is a risk. A player might not be able to make the jump, they might be a poor fit for your scheme, they may get hurt, or your team might simply be a bad environment for them. If your team is in the “win now” window a proven veteran can be the better buy than hoping you’ll find the next Donald Driver in the seventh round.
And the Green Bay coaches and front office personnel believe the Packers can still win it all, regardless of which quarterback starts in 2023. Matt LaFleur chose to prioritize continuity with his coaching staff, maintaining Joe Barry’s defensive staff and making no changes to the offensive staff. He and Gutekunst have made it clear that the team won’t enter a rebuild.
If Aaron Rodgers is Green Bay’s starter, it means the team is maximizing the final years of his career to get the future Hall of Famer back to the Super Bowl. It may stunt future growth, but if you truly believe Rodgers can win another Super Bowl with Green Bay, you need to get the proven talent he needs to get there rather than another James Looney or Cole Van Lanen.
If Jordan Love is your starter, maintaining Barry’s staff is a sign you think you have the pieces to win now and don’t want to waste time on a rebuild. Love is on the last year of his rookie deal, and his fifth-year option is around $20 million. You need playmakers if you want to emulate the teams around the league that maximized their roster building with a QB on a rookie deal. Free agency helps, but you can’t be afraid to trade for players you need.
The Packers have been great about finding valuable veteran players in the league, especially recently. Acquiring De’Vondre Campbell, Rasul Douglas, Keisean Nixon, Rudy Ford, and Justin Hollins moved the needle for Green Bay. They see the value in these types of players; they just need to be willing to spend those late-round picks on them.
Last year was a wake-up call for the Packers, and LaFleur admitted they were exposed this past season. Even after a down year, the Packers can bounce back and take over a weak NFC. But they’ll need to be willing to try new things and copy off of other successful teams. Green Bay can still be a draft-and-develop team at its core, but they need to actively supplement that approach by using those picks on players that can elevate the team immediately. Otherwise, they’ll keep coming up just short.
