The Green Bay Packers are second in expected points added per play on early downs. They are also 25th in rush EPA. So you should expect a pass-heavy team to start the series, right? Well, that’s not what’s been happening, and it’s a problem head coach Matt LaFleur might be forced to solve in the next couple of weeks — especially for the game against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday.
Through the first two weeks of the regular season, the Packers are 27th in pass percentage (50.47%) and 18th in pass rate over expected (-1.7%). That means the offense is running the ball even in some situations where the pass is the most obvious option.
There are several potential justifications for that. LaFleur trying to protect first-year starting quarterback Jordan Love. The Packers also have a run-centric system. They may also desire to lean heavily into more experienced players with so much youth among the receiving options. It could be a combination of all three.
Whatever the reason, the Packers have been struggling to run the ball effectively. And the insistence to do so, especially on early downs, has created unfavorable late-down situations. Ultimately, Green Bay’s offense is not as good as it could be.
Run-game issues
Aaron Jones’ absence in the loss to the Atlanta Falcons was significant, because he is the only running back on Green Bay’s roster who can create yards beyond what the offensive line generates for him. A.J. Dillon has been average at best, and he isn’t effective when the run blocking falters. And, well, the Packers haven’t been run blocking.
Green Bay’s offensive line is mostly built to pass protect. That’s general manager Brian Gutekunst’s priority from a style standpoint, and it makes sense. But it also has a cost, and this year has shown that. The Packers are eighth in pass-block win rate, according to ESPN, and just 25th in run-block win rate.
“It’s across the board with our run game,” said Matt LaFleur. “It’s our aiming points, whether you’re an offensive lineman, tight end, running back. We’ve got to be more physical at the point of attack. There’s so much that goes into it, so it’s never just on one person.”
Lack of a deep threat
Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs are the Packers’ most-targeted wide receivers to start the season. Luke Musgrave has also been a frequent option. While all of these players are fast, they are not deep threats. That’s why the team is missing Christian Watson so much. (There’s a chance he’s back on Sunday, but no assurances so far.)
Even without Watson, the Packers have been impressively explosive. On early downs, they are just 18th in success rate passing the ball but second in dropback EPA. On late downs, they are 10th in success rate and second in dropback EPA. That combination means they aren’t as effective on a down-to-down basis, but they get huge chunks when they do get a positive play.
LaFleur probably thinks the running game makes Jordan Love’s life easier. Theoretically, it makes sense. But a bad running offense has actually hindered the quarterback, creating difficult situations. That’s why, even though the Packers are the best team in the NFL in percentage of plays against perfect coverage (this means the scheme is getting players open), Love has a league-high 25% of his attempts deemed as aggressive, according to Next Gen Stats. Love throws one in four passes where the defender is within one yard of the receiver at the time of the completion or incompletion. The scheme is good, and Love has been good. However, the situations might not be.
The pass rate on early downs may be especially important this Sunday against the Saints. Dennis Allen’s defense is 32nd in pass-rush win rate, even though they have generated a lot of pressure late in downs. And they are ninth in run-stop win rate, keeping the trend of being a solid run defense in general, even with the turnover along the defensive line.
The Saints are fourth in the NFL in completion percentage of 10-plus-yard throws allowed, which indicates they have a solid secondary. How can a team exploit the combination of factors? The short pass game.
Love has shown he’s capable of executing a competent offense. He hasn’t made many big-time throws. However, he’s been competent in short and intermediate passes, so LaFleur has to give him the chance to create rhythm and sequence. That’s ideal against a defense that can’t get home fast and doesn’t allow big plays.
If the run game isn’t the answer, the Packers have to find alternatives. Matt LaFleur is more than capable enough to scheme short completions to create a more favorable and effective environment for Jordan Love and the young receiving pieces.
