Considering positional value, productivity, and scarcity around the league, it’s difficult to argue that Rashan Gary isn’t the most valuable defensive player on the Green Bay Packers’ roster entering the season. Furthermore, he has a strong case for the most valuable on the overall roster, alongside quarterback Jordan Love. From Weeks 1 to 9 last year, the Packers were second in the league in the percentage of pass-rush snaps resulting in a pressure. Then Gary injured his knee, and the team fell to 28th for the rest of the year.
That’s probably why the Packers drafted Lukas Van Ness in the first round, but it doesn’t affect how important Gary is to this team. And analyzing the edge defender market, it’s better for Green Bay to extend him as soon as possible.
The Packers chose Gary with the 12th-overall pick in 2019. Therefore, he’s playing under the fifth-year option of his rookie contract, a $10.89 million base salary and cap hit.
The problem is that the 2019 edge class was loaded. Four first-rounders are playing under the fifth-year option without a long-term extension this year:
- Nick Bosa (San Francisco 49ers)
- Josh Allen (Jacksonville Jaguars)
- Brian Burns (Carolina Panthers)
- Montez Sweat (Washington Commanders)
That’s why it would make sense for the Packers to act quickly. The longer it takes for Gary to sign a deal, the more expensive it probably will get.
Nick Bosa will certainly be the highest-paid player of the group. He may become the highest-paid defensive player in the NFL, coming off a Defensive Player of the Year season.
According to Spotrac, this is the market projection for each of them:
- Nick Bosa: $114.6 million/4 years ($28.6 million yearly average)
- Rashan Gary: $104.2 million/4 years ($26 million yearly average)
- Brian Burns: $73.4 million/4 years ($18.3 million yearly average)
- Montez Sweat: $66.5 million/4 years ($16.6 million yearly average)
- Josh Allen: $64.7 million/4 years ($16.1 million yearly average)
Gary and Burns are interesting cases for analysis. Throughout the first four years of their careers, Burns has inarguably been the most productive player. He was a starter from Day 1 and has amassed 38 sacks. Gary spent the first two years as a part-time player and missed half of last season. He’s had 22.5 sacks. Gary had only one season where he had more sacks than Burns, in 2021, but it was just half a sack more.
However, Gary is more productive on a down-to-down basis. Moreover, there is a strong argument that the Packers’ defender, who was raw coming out of college, will be more productive during the life of the new contract considering how he’s developed. Still, their deals will likely be similar, and the player who makes more money will likely be the one who waits the longest.
That’s why Gary is not concerned with his contract situation, even though he’s still recovering from injury.
“Not at all,” Gary said during Green Bay’s organized team activities. “I don’t think about that. I didn’t even know it was that time. Like I said, I’m just taking it day by day.”
According to Darin Gantt of Panthers.com, Carolina has already made an offer to re-sign Burns. It’s impossible to know exactly how long it will take, and the Packers also may have made an offer for Gary. They probably have because Jaire Alexander extended his deal in May last year. But with the injury concern over his knee, it’s also possible that Green Bay is being more cautious.
Regardless, it would be important for Green Bay to extend Gary before Carolina re-signs Burns. If the Panthers give Burns an overpriced deal, it will be hard for the Packers to negotiate a better contract with Gary. Even if Burns has better numbers, Gary’s camp will point to Gary’s efficiency numbers. They could make the case that he hasn’t produced more because Green Bay didn’t give him opportunities in his first two seasons.
The Panthers are rebuilding and have plenty of projected cap space for the future. Currently, they are third in cap space for 2023. They are 11th for projected space in 2024, and second in 2026. The Packers aren’t in as good of a position, so they can’t wait for Carolina’s number to make the negotiation harder.
There is no reason for the Packers to not extend Gary. He’s young, talented, and a good locker-room presence. He also looks like he’s on the right track in his injury recovery. That means the deal will happen. And if it’s going to happen, the Packers are smart to lock him as soon as possible, or they will have to pay more.
