The Green Bay Packers are at a crossroads in 2023 because we still don’t know what will happen to quarterback Aaron Rodgers and how his decision will affect the rest of the roster construction. Moreover, 24-year-old quarterback Jordan Love’s future depends on this too. Therefore, 2023 will be a year full of information-gathering for the Packers. That means 2024 should be a year with more answers.
That’s why it’s imperative for the Packers to finish this offseason with extra draft capital for 2024, whichever path they take. So, how do they do it?
If Rodgers stays
How to acquire extra draft capital?
If Aaron Rodgers decides to play one more year with the Packers, it’ll be unrealistic to justify keeping Jordan Love. So the easiest way to acquire capital is to trade the backup quarterback. In this scenario, though, it would be more logical to acquire capital this year and reinforce the team around Rodgers to win now.
However, it’s still possible to add something to next year, be it trading Love or trading down during the draft. A rookie probably wouldn’t be impactful immediately, so the Packers could decide to trade down, acquire more capital for 2024, and make its selection later.
Why is it important?
In December, I wrote that it was financially risky to keep both Rodgers and Love. Therefore, if Rodgers stays, Love has to go. And if Love goes, the Packers will need another quarterback to replace Rodgers in the long term. There’s no need for Green Bay to do it now because the best route to go is to surround Rodgers with more talent around him while he’s active.
Moreover, experts expect the 2024 quarterback class to be better than this year’s, and they view Caleb Williams as the best QB prospect since Trevor Lawrence. The extra draft capital will be essential to put the Packers in position to trade up for a quarterback if needed, especially considering that the team might be relatively good with Rodgers and won’t have a high pick.
If Rodgers is traded
How to acquire extra draft capital?
This might be the easiest path, and that’s why my stance is that trading Rodgers is the best outcome for the Packers. Trading Rodgers would give Green Bay more capital, and general manager Brian Gutekunst has to be wise to make sure he gets extra picks in 2024. Furthermore, the need for immediate impact lessens without Rodgers, so it would make even more sense to trade down in the draft. It could be with whichever picks they acquire, with their original 15th pick, or maybe even both depending on their board.
Additionally, if Rodgers gets traded, some of his friends might go with him — Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis, and maybe Mason Crosby if he keeps playing. If the Packers don’t spend much in free agency, those exits will also generate compensatory picks in 2024.
Why is it important?
If the Packers trade Rodgers, the 2023 season will be particularly important to identify if Love is good enough. And the extra capital is going to be essential. If Love is bad, the team has to move on quickly, and in the same direction they would go in the previous scenario, they could use the extra picks to move up and grab a quarterback in the first round.
However, if Love shows the potential to be the answer, that’s the perfect scenario. With more picks, that’s more or less what happened to the Philadelphia Eagles and Jalen Hurts. They found their franchise quarterback and still have extra picks in 2024 to surround him with talent. Love won’t benefit from cheap years of his rookie contract, so the Packers have to find other ways to build a better roster around him.
If Rodgers retires
How to acquire extra draft capital?
Rodgers retiring would be the worst-case scenario for the Packers in terms of roster-building because they wouldn’t have extra picks, nor Rodgers. They also couldn’t trade Love because he would be the starter. Therefore, the only way to acquire picks here would be trading down in the draft.
That would be even more important because Gutekunst would need more darts to build the roster. The compensatory picks, especially for Lazard, would be another way to do it. If the Packers decide to go all-in on getting younger, they could trade a player like David Bakhtiari for a high draft pick, leaving Yosh Nijman and Zach Tom as their best options at tackle.
Why is it important?
For most of the same reasons in the scenario that they trade Rodgers. They need an insurance policy if Love isn’t what the Packers expect him to be. On top of that, there wouldn’t be additional capital for Rodgers, so Green Bay would need more tools to build a good roster, whether with Love or not.
Obviously, Rodgers returning and winning a championship is a great scenario, but it’s not a realistic projection considering how last season went. Because of that, the best-case scenario for the Packers is to trade the veteran quarterback, acquire more draft capital, and free up future cap space. Gutekunst would have a clean slate to build a new version of this team, and 2023 would offer more answers regarding Jordan Love and the rest of the roster to support future decisions.
