If you asked the average Green Bay Packers fan, “What was Packers’ downfall in 2022?,” they’d likely point to the defense, which ranked 31st in the NFL in DVOA versus the run. However, a little-discussed part of the downturn in 2022 was their performance on offense on third and fourth down. The Packers dipped from the top 10 in the league in third- and fourth-down conversions in 2020 and 2021 to the bottom half of the league in 2022. In fact, they’ve dipped in both categories over the last three years:
| Conversion Percentage 2020 | Conversion Percentage 2021 | Conversion Percentage 2022 | |
| On Third Down | 50.97% | 43.46% | 39.50% |
| On Fourth Down | 61.90% | 59.09% | 38.91% |
Part of the precipitous drop is undoubtedly due to the Packers being without longtime star wideout Davante Adams. Part of Adams’ allure was not just his connection with Aaron Rodgers, but his master technician’s ability to create space because of his breaks off the line of scrimmage. His breaks create layup opportunities to convert in short-yardage situations, like the below fourth-and-one against the San Francisco 49ers in 2020:
However, throws like these require not only skill but a common timing, trust, and understanding of the depth of where a receiver will break out of a route. Adams’ primary replacements, Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson, largely had to learn on the job with Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers’ safety valve in the passing game wasn’t there in 2022.
he Philadelphia Eagles provide a model for improvement on third and fourth down as one of the top performers in the league. The Eagles converted third downs at a 47.58% rate and fourth downs at a 72.97% rate, good for the top five in the NFL. A big part of Philadelphia’s success was a very specific play inspired by rugby scrums where they shoved Jalen Hurts forward in short-yardage situations.
Now, Rodgers is no Jalen Hurts in the QB run game. Of quarterbacks who started at least 10 games in 2022, Rodgers ranked 19th in rushing attempts and 22nd in rushing yards among 28 qualified QBs.
Jordan Love is a different story. Coming out of college, Love posted an 8.43 relative athletic score (RAS). Rodgers had a 7.16 RAS. Love, 24, is also obviously much younger than Rodgers’ 39. Love’s athleticism may open new avenues for Matt LaFleur to explore in the QB run game to address Green Bay’s third- and fourth-down deficiencies from 2022.
LaFleur won’t be afraid to tailor his offense to his new quarterback’s strengths, even if it means borrowing from other offenses. In the podcast series The Playcallers by Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic, LaFleur noted “I’m not too ashamed to say I’ll steal from anybody. If I think it’s good idea, I don’t care.” With Love taking over, LaFleur is likely exploring ways to tweak the Packers offense to fit Love’s strengths.
During The Playcallers podcast, Rodrique visited LaFleur while he was watching tape of other teams throughout the league and he noted, “I’m trying to get inspiration from watching others and how they use a specific player to try to come up with plays or ideas that are going to help our players be their best.” With that mindset, and Love’s athleticism, I’d be surprised if LaFleur didn’t at least add a wrinkle or two to the quarterback run game in 2023.
The below play is a great example of a run-pass-option quarterback deployed by New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones. Based on the defensive look, Jones keeps the ball and uses his athleticism to exploit space in the open field to pick up a short-yardage situation.
Additionally, the threat of a more mobile quarterback could improve the effectiveness of Green Bay’s motion game. Take the below example from the Eagles, where Jalen Hurts scores on a third-and-two.
The opposing defense has to respect the run look from running back Miles Sanders and the motioning tight end Dallas Goedert in the flat, which creates space for Hurts to pick up the first down. While Love may not have the speed to score on this type of look, it’s a layup first down.
Ultimately, I’m not expecting Jordan Love to set any QB rushing records for the Packers. However, his athleticism lends itself to league trends of quarterbacks getting more involved in the running game. Matt LaFleur may well agree and be looking to Love’s legs to improve the Packers third- and fourth-down offense in 2023.
