The Green Bay Packers are in an unfamiliar place. After a series of competitive years in the twilight seasons of Aaron Rodgers‘ career, the team is not in all-in mode anymore — if they ever were. Therefore, it’s natural that outside observers think the Packers would or should be willing to move veterans for draft capital and cap relief.
That’s probably why ESPN’s Mike Greenberg said the New York Jets should go after left tackle David Bakhtiari.
On Tuesday, former Packers backup quarterback Kurt Benkert reinforced the narrative. He thinks Rodgers and Bakhtari will reunite at some point in their careers.
And those are all valid considerations. In the future, maybe it will make sense for all parties involved. However, this is not the moment for the Packers, for several reasons.
Why the Jets?
It obviously would make sense for the Jets because their offensive line is a genuine problem. Head coach Robert Saleh heavily criticized the unit after the joint practice with the Carolina Panthers, as we saw on Hard Knocks.
It also makes sense for Bakhtiari and Rodgers, who are close friends and would have a good time playing together. But the Packers have no motivation to help the Jets. The worse the Jets are, the better Green Bay’s pick will be. So any trade with New York would have to include this perspective as a consideration.
First, the Jets would probably have to guarantee the first-round pick that is now conditional on Rodgers playing 65% of the offensive snaps. Moreover, the additional draft compensation would have to reimburse Green Bay because this first-rounder would probably be lower.
Even if there are no other interested teams to create a market competition, the Jets would have to pay a really significant price to get Bakhtiari.
Money
The cap is another aspect. The Packers restructured Bakhtiari’s contract earlier this offseason to create immediate cap relief. That means if Green Bay trades the left tackle away now, they would only open up $1.5 million — the base salary amount and likely per-game roster bonuses.
That would also be the cap hit for the Jets, making the offensive lineman even more attractive to trade suitors. His 2024 cap hit would be $21.4 million. However, the Packers would have an exorbitant dead money of $19.7 million in 2023 and $19.1 million in 2024.
If the Packers were planning to trade Bakhtiari this year, they wouldn’t have converted his old base salary into a restructure bonus.
Give Love a chance
Besides the draft compensation and the money involved in the transaction, there are also real on-field reasons. The most important thing for Green Bay’s 2023 season is to give new starting quarterback Jordan Love the best possible path to success. And that clearly involves an All-Pro left tackle.
Bakhtiari’s health is uncertain, but he’s still an elite pass protector when he is on the field. For example, Bakhtiari allowed one pressure every 33.9 pass-blocking snaps last season, which is better than Trent Williams. The San Francisco 49ers star allowed one pressure every 27.7 pass-blocking snaps, and he was a First-Team All-Pro.
If the Packers traded Bakh right now, they would have to patch the starting offensive line with Yosh Nijman at left tackle and Zach Tom at right tackle. That’s still a really good duo, but it lowers the ceiling and takes away Green Bay’s flexibility in case of injuries or if center Josh Myers is unplayable (Tom has taken center reps in training camp too).
Succession plan
The scenario with Nijman at LT and Tom at RT is feasible in the short- and long-term, but there’s another problem. Nijman is playing under a restricted free-agent tender, which means he will be an unrestricted free agent next offseason. If the Packers decide to trade Bakhtiari, they would basically be forced to give Nijman a long-term extension. That would be expensive because the Packers would have given him leverage, and this expensive price tag would compound Bakhtiari’s dead-money impact.
Things will be different next off-season. The Packers will have more information about Bakhtiari. Is he healthy? Is he still elite? They’ll also know more about Tom’s versatility, about Myers as a center, and about Nijman’s contract demands. Furthermore, they’ll know which pick the Jets will be sending them.
If Green Bay decides it’s time to move on from Bakhtiari after the season, the Jets could very well be in the conversation, and all parties can find common ground. However, that’s not a realistic scenario this year. The Packers are better off keeping Bakhtiari. And if they want to trade him at some point during the season, the Jets shouldn’t be the destination.
