When the Tennessee Titans took Peter Skoronski with the 11th-overall pick, it was clear that Jaxon Smith-Njigba would be available at pick 13 for the Green Bay Packers. But, as we all should have expected, because this is not news anymore: Brian Gutekunst passed up the opportunity to select an offensive weapon early and took Iowa edge defender Lukas Van Ness.
Gutekunst has made eight first-round selections as the Packers’ general manager: seven defenders and Jordan Love.
The bad
Van Ness is a talented player, but he’s very much another project for the Packers, like Rashan Gary was in 2019. He played 50 or more snaps only once at Iowa, which indicates he will arrive as a rotational pass rusher behind Gary and Preston Smith. If he develops well, he may be a future starter, but it won’t happen immediately.
The other suboptimal point for the Packers is that the team has put so much effort into building a dominant defense, and it might never happen under defensive coordinator Joe Barry. Gutekunst has this philosophy, and it’s clear he prioritizes defense with his most important assets.
It made more sense when Aaron Rodgers was the quarterback. Theoretically, the star passer could elevate the offensive pieces. Will Jordan Love be capable of doing the same? As I wrote before the draft, it would make sense to add offensive pieces to make sure Love would be successful — and if he isn’t, there would be little doubt about the responsibility.
The good
Even though there are some negative points to consider, Packers fans should be much happier with this choice than they were last year with off-ball linebacker Quay Walker. First of all, Van Ness plays a premium position, and the surplus value if he turns out to be a great player is huge — top edge defenders are getting around $30 million per season.
Moreover, there are real roles for Van Ness to be impactful right away. Ideally, he will be a rotational pass rusher. But with Rashan Gary recovering from a knee injury, the rookie’s defensive role will be significant. Van Ness will be behind Preston Smith on the depth chart, but he may fight for snaps with last year’s fifth-round pick Kingsley Enagbare and with Justin Hollins.
Green Bay’s need to improve their pass rush was real. Last season, the team had a 32% pressure rate after Gary got injured — down from 40%. Van Ness was also an impressive special teamer at Iowa. He had two blocked punts, for example, and was named Big Ten Conference Special Teams Player of the Week for his play vs. Iowa State.
“He’s got an incredible load on him, but it wouldn’t be there if the guy couldn’t handle it,” Iowa’s defensive line coach Kelvin Bell said after the game against Iowa St. “Just being able to play up and down the line of scrimmage helps me with depth. The impact that he’s having from a special teams standpoint, you can’t overstate that enough.”
Another good point for the Packers is that the New York Jets selected edge defender Will McDonald at No. 15. Considering both teams have gotten players from the same position, the perception is the swap ended up being relevant for Green Bay after the Aaron Rodgers trade.
Pressure on Friday
Moving forward, the most significant impact of Green Bay’s decision to take a defensive player is mostly the same thing that happened in 2022 when they took Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt. There is more pressure to take offensive pieces in the second round; at least this year the Packers have better picks (42 and 45) compared to last draft (53 and 59, both of which they traded to the Minnesota Vikings to select Christian Watson at 34).
Green Bay probably needs another wide receiver because Watson and Romeo Doubs are the only players with significant snap experience in the NFL — Samori Toure and Bo Melton are projects. The need for one or probably multiple tight ends is also significant. Right now, Josiah Deguara and Tyler Davis are their options. At some point, the Packers may feel forced to take a pass-catcher on Day 2, even if the value could not necessarily be there.
However, Gutekunst probably thinks the difference between Van Ness and the other edge defenders was bigger. No wide receivers were taken before the 20th pick, which shows that this class isn’t strong at the position, as valuable as it is — two running backs were taken in the top 15, for what it’s worth. But there was a run for receivers in the 20s, so a deep tight end class might be the best way for the Packers to find pass-catching options for Love on Day 2.
