The new quarterback rivalry between Jordan Love and Justin Fields is a big storyline for Week 1, and also for the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears’ future. While Aaron Rodgers “owned” the Bears throughout his career in Green Bay, the Bears have struggled to find a definitive answer at quarterback. Jay Cutler was 2-10 against the Packers, and Mitchell Trubisky was 1-6.
Fields hasn’t done any better. In his first four starts against the Packers, Chicago’s QB1 has averaged a 70.7 passer rating, losing all four games. We’ve talked extensively about Love throughout the offseason, training camp, and preseason. However, Fields is also a big factor for Green Bay this week.
If he isn’t able to take the so-called leap in his third NFL season, this is most likely his last year as the Bears’ starter.
Fields’ career has been full of ups and downs, and his timeline against the Packers has also followed this trend. In 2021, his first two starts were relatively similar. He had the same number of touchdown passes and interceptions and a close passer rating.
Last year, Fields had two very different performances. The first one was a near-total disaster. He only threw 11 times for seven completions, fewer than 100 passing yards, and tallied a 43.7 passer rating. But the rematch gave the Bears more hope. There Fields completed 80% of his passes for 254 yards — the third-best mark of his entire career. However, he also threw two picks, no touchdowns, and Chicago lost again.
In total, Fields has had six interceptions in four games.
However, his running ability has been the most prominent skill in Fields’ game. He scored one rushing touchdown in each game last year, including a 56-yard TD run in the second.
“When he runs, he’s like a running back,” Packers cornerback Rasul Douglas said. “He’s not just an average runner who might slide or go out of bounds. Like, no, he’s looking for all the yards he can get.”
Fields vs. Green Bay
- Game 1: 16/27 (59.3%), 174yds, TD, INT, 75.2 passer rating, 6 rushes, 43 yards, 7.2 YPC
- Game 2: 18/33 (54.5%), 224yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 70.8 passer rating, 9 rushes, 74 yards, 8.2 YPC
- Game 3: 7/11 (63.6%), 70yds, INT, 43.7 passer rating, 8 rushes, 20 yds, 2.5 YPC, 1 rushing TD
- Game 4: 20/25 (80%), 254yds, 2 INTs, 75.7 passer rating, 6 rushes, 71 yards, 11.8 YPC, 1 rushing TD
“He understands the importance of [the rivalry] for the franchise, for the city, for everybody,” Bears head coach Matt Eberflus said. “He understands that and he’s excited about getting that done.”
The Bears probably have thought about the Packers more than the Packers think about the Bears. It’s a logical development, considering recent history. Now the change at quarterback in Green Bay is seen in Chicago as an opportunity to flip the script.
“The first game — playing Green Bay — that’s an opportunity to start this off on the right foot,” Fields mentioned. “That’s an opportunity to make a statement to where the season’s going to go. Of course, we haven’t beat them in a while. So it’ll be good to start the year off strong with them, getting that win and just continuing to get better from there. I’m excited for it.”
For that to happen, though, Fields has to be much better — especially at passing the ball. He was 22nd of 31 qualified quarterbacks in EPA/dropback. If you exclude scrambles, he was dead last. Among 33 quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts, Fields was 28th in on-target percentage — the worse passers were Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, Davis Mills, Marcus Mariota, and Zach Wilson. He was also 28th in bad-throws percentage and last in sacks (which is in part an offensive line issue, but mostly it’s a quarterback issue).
Many NFL pundits expect Fields to have a third-year leap a la Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. But Fields’ baseline of play in his first two years is much lower.
The Bears added wide receiver D.J. Moore, and that’s the genesis of my comparison. The Buffalo Bills traded for Stefon Diggs, and the Philadelphia Eagles acquired A.J. Brown, both who had a significant impact on the young quarterbacks.
However, Buffalo and Philadelphia were already better than Chicago. The Bills went to the playoffs in 2019, which was Allen’s sophomore season. And the Eagles made the postseason in 2021, Hurts’ second year. Their rosters were already in a better place, while the Bears had the worst record in the NFL last year.
Fields’ first two seasons were worse even than past Bears quarterbacks, like Jay Cutler (who actually had a strong start to his career) and Mitch Trubisky. So, the Bears starting quarterback has a long way to go, especially as a passer, to be a solid NFL player — let alone an above-average thrower.
In general, Green Bay’s defense has been underwhelming and particularly bad against the run. That’s why Justin Fields has a big opportunity in front of him next Sunday. But he hasn’t been able to produce, even against the Packers. Therefore, his leap will have to be significant and almost unprecedented for the Bears to consistently turn the rivalry around.
