As the most omniscient entities in modern society, markets price in anything you can think of — and the things you didn’t. Betting odds are a market, constantly adjusting to every piece of new information at any hour of the day. Vegas doesn’t know what’s going to happen. They didn’t know the Los Angeles Chargers were primed to blow a 27-point lead in the wild-card round or that Christian McCaffrey would be unironically taking snaps in the NFC Championship game. They just have a true sense of probability.
Vegas has access to all the information we could possibly gather, and they know who and where the money is coming in from. Factoring in some of the most advanced models and, of course, the juice, it’s easy to see why so few people have long-term success with sportsbooks. That’s what makes the odds for Aaron Rodgers’ 2023 destination so fascinating.
Earlier this week, the Las Vegas Raiders vaulted to heavy favorites to land the all-time great. And when I say heavy, I mean it – they now sit at -390 on DraftKings Sportsbook. To win $100, you’d have to throw down $390 on Rodgers to take his next snap in black and silver. The Green Bay Packers, the franchise for whom he’s played all 17 years of his career, are next on the list but still pretty distant underdogs at +300 ($300 profit off a $100 wager). The New York Jets, the loudest team and fanbase on this front, do indeed medal on this list, albeit at a distant +600.
The Raiders make sense. Rodgers claimed that former Packers wideout Davante Adams is the best player he’s ever thrown the ball to. Adams forced himself to Vegas to fulfill a dream of playing with his college teammate and close friend Derek Carr. After thoroughly subverting expectations, Carr is out after only one season reunited with Adams. And if the interviews, Twitter trolling, and discount double-check celebrations at the Pro Bowl are any indication, the memes depicting a frustrated Adams on the Raiders sideline were correct – he wants his Hall of Famer back.
If you’re familiar with the odds market, you probably recognized that a substantial flipping of this kind is pretty much never without merit. By setting the Raiders’ odds at a nearly 80% implied probability, books are willingly going on the hook for a lot of money if Rodgers winds up literally anywhere else. It’s worth noting that the bet is conditional on him not retiring.
We can point at a handful of recent events as having narrowed the options: Tom Brady’s retirement, Adam Schefter’s report that a trade is a “very real possibility,” and multiple reports that any trade would be discussed exclusively with the AFC. There’s also been some chatter, combined with common sense, that Jordan Love season has to be arriving soon, with the man damn near done with his rookie contract. For all that we know and for all that makes intuitive sense to us, Vegas knows more. So, suffice it to say that Packers fans clinging to memories of No. 12 should be deeply unsettled by that gargantuan -390 number.
The odds flip we’ve witnessed is quite comparable to that which occurred three nights before the 2022 NFL Draft. Despite being seen as the favorite pretty much throughout the whole season, Michigan edge and Heisman finalist Aidan Hutchinson slid from -225 to +135 to be the first player selected. In a blitzkrieg takeover of the top spot, Georgia’s Travon Walker leaped from +220 to -165. And, of course, the Jacksonville Jaguars took Walker in a pick that surprised many people because of how raw a prospect he was.
Look, I’m not going to sit here and tell you that linesmakers are in that dark shack with Aaron Rodgers or on those ayahuasca trips. I know how ridiculous it sounds that anything, even the all-encompassing market, could possibly predict the man who has been anything but predictable over the past two years. But if you feel so confident that his next snap, if there is one, will be in green and gold — or, better yet, in New Jersey under the direction of Robert Saleh — you have the potential to feed your family for a long time. And we all know that’s not how it typically goes in Vegas.
