Last year, rookie wide receiver Christian Watson struggled early. He famously dropped a sure touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 and made some rookie mistakes. But as the year went on, his productivity picked up. His coming out party started last year against the Dallas Cowboys, getting over 100 receiving yards and scoring three touchdown receptions in a 31-28 victory for the Packers.
That game sparked something in Watson, propelling him to get over 300 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in a four-game span. Although he was not as productive outside of that span of games, he showed flashes of the star that he can become in his sophomore season.
Watson finished his rookie campaign with 41 receptions for over 600 yards and nine total touchdowns, seven through the air and two on the ground.
For the 2023 NFL season, Las Vegas listed the over/under for Christian Watson’s receiving touchdowns at 4.5. Initially, this line does not make much sense, given the productivity that he put up last year. But it’s important to remember that he had Aaron Rodgers throwing to him last year, and now he has Jordan Love.
It’s not like Love and Watson never connected last year. Remember that the two connected on a 63-yard touchdown pass against the high-powered Philadelphia Eagles.
With a line like that, many may think that Vegas is either predicting a sophomore slump or an injury that halts Watson’s season. Neither of these is the case because Vegas has also put the over/under for Watson’s receptions at 62.5 and his receiving yards at 825.5. Both are higher than the totals that he put up in those categories last year.
To summarize, Vegas believes that Watson will have a better year for his overall productivity but that he will not score nearly as many touchdowns. Regardless of whether that is a good or a bad call, they know what they are doing. So let’s analyze what they might be seeing.
First of all, Watson is the fastest receiver on the team. He ran a 4.36 40-yard dash at the Combine, and that speed definitely turned him into a deep threat, as we saw last year against Dallas.
Also, keep in mind that he perfected a backflip after scoring that touchdown, so he clearly is a freak athlete.
Second of all, deep passes don’t always result in touchdowns. They are much more likely to create a big gain in yardage and field position. Many more touchdowns are scored in the red zone or just outside of it. Since the Packers have Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon as their red-zone machine, Watson might not be the most prominent target in scoring position.
Now this makes more sense. But due to defenses expecting the run, Jordan Love will have to occasionally throw the ball inside the 20. Romeo Doubs is the receiver who will most likely be utilized down there. Doubs has shown that the chemistry developed between him and Love can be effective in scoring situations.
Not to say that Watson won’t be looked at at all, as his speed can be used on short crossing routes when the defense is playing man coverage. In a recent joint practice between the Packers and the Cincinnati Bengals, Watson used his speed to get space on crossing routes throughout the entire practice.
This same play, albeit going in different directions, was used for him to score his hat-trick touchdown against the Cowboys last year. So Watson’s speed can be used in the red zone on short drives and run-heavy drives.
Ultimately, there are multiple ways that the Packers can use Watson, whether it’s deep throws, short crossers, or reverse runs. Assuming that he avoids injury, Watson should be able to put up the numbers that Vegas is predicting. He definitely should be able to score five touchdowns or more this season. Reminder, he scored six times in three games.
Who knows what exactly Vegas is thinking out of Christian Watson? It is odd that a No. 1 or 2 target on a young team is expected to get a lot of targets and gain a lot of yards but only a few touchdowns. Time and football will tell.
