Of all the frustrating elements to come out of Sunday’s 34-20 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Green Bay Packers’ inability to get a stop they desperately needed on third down was at the top of the list. The combination of soft defensive pressure and poor execution allowed Baker Mayfield to look like a Hall of Famer, dicing the Packers up for 381 passing yards while converting seven of 11 third downs.
After taking the opening kickoff, Mayfield and Tampa Bay quickly went to work driving down the field before Kenny Clark‘s third-down sack helped to dampen the momentum and limit the Buccaneers to a field goal. But Tampa Bay was incredibly effective following that early stop. Mayfield hit Mike Evans for a 19-yard touchdown on third-and-six early in the second quarter. Then he locked in on Chris Godwin, who caught four first-down conversions on third down throughout the game. For good measure, he added a 21-yard gain on second-and-18 in the third quarter.
The defense’s inability to get off the field proved insurmountable for the Packers on Sunday. Green Bay forced only one turnover on Kingsley Enagbare‘s strip-sack and, perhaps worse, forced just one punt. Outside of the kneel-downs at the end of the game, Tampa Bay scored a touchdown on every possession in the second half. Godwin repeatedly blew right past De’Vondre Campbell in the middle of the defense to the tune of 155 yards on 10 catches.
It was a game that the Packers desperately needed if they wanted to show that they might be a playoff contender. Instead, Mayfield might have put up the greatest visiting quarterback stat line in Lambeau Field’s history. The defensive line got to Mayfield for five sacks, but Mayfield was about as good as could be when he had time to throw.
Evans caught a touchdown, and Rachaad White was effective in the run game. But the Buccaneers’ ability to repeatedly work the middle of the field made the difference on Sunday. Campbell had a game that made Packers fans wonder if he’d even be on the team next year, but he wasn’t alone in his underwhelming performance. Quay Walker also looked lost at times, getting beat across the middle by White on a 26-yard catch and run touchdown in the third quarter.
Green Bay’s third-down struggles aren’t exactly new, but they are rearing their head at an inopportune time for the Packers’ playoff chances. Converting at an almost 70% clip at third-and-four or less, Green Bay opponents have feasted on short-yardage opportunities. Tampa Bay entered the game converting on third down at only a 40% success rate, making their 7/11 mark on Sunday all the more frustrating. The Packers head to Charlotte this weekend, and the Carolina Panthers are converting only 36% of their third downs this year. Green Bay can’t afford to let another below-average opponent have an above-average day.
With so much ire directed toward Joe Barry in the aftermath of the second-straight loss in a seemingly winnable game, the Packers can help rectify some of the wrongs by showing marked improvement on third down. Matt LaFleur identified some plays that Barry and the defense “would like to have back.” If the Packers want to be a playoff team, the defense must hold up its end of the bargain. Tampa’s game plan wasn’t flashy; they attacked the gaps in the second level of the defense. Suppose there’s more of the same in the final three weeks of the season. Then Green Bay will be on the outside of the playoffs looking in, and numerous members of the defense might be looking for a new job in the offseason.
