With Aaron Rodgers gone, it’s no longer a given that the Green Bay Packers will make the post-season every year.
Sure, Rodgers didn’t get the team there in his final season in Green Bay. Historically, though, you could confidently expect at least 10 wins and a trip to the playoffs with Rodgers under center.
Even with a host of unknowns on offense, there is reason for optimism for the offense under Jordan Love. The NFC is weak compared to the AFC, and there isn’t a clearly dominant team in the NFC North. It might take some time for Love and his young receiving corps to click. Still, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them make a playoff push in Year 1.
But if Love and the novice receivers struggle, they have an excellent running tandem to fall back on. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are one of the best one-two running punches in the league. With Rodgers gone, the offense will rely on the ground game even more. If the aerial attack struggles, just how far can the ground attack carry the Packers’ offense?
It’s a pass-happy world in the modern NFL, but that doesn’t mean a good running game isn’t important. Don’t pay running backs is a common mantra in the NFL community, but the fact remains that a good running game can wear down defenses, create favorable matchups in the passing game, dominate time of possession, and create opportunities for running backs to make plays in the air. As Kyle Shanahan says, run the ball until they make you stop. So when a team isn’t getting impressive play from its quarterback, having a good rushing attack can make up some of the differences.
It’s weird to call an Aaron Rodgers-led team one with mediocre quarterback play, but that’s what the Packers got in 2022. Rodgers had one of his worst seasons as a starter. Still, he insisted on playing his brand of hero ball rather than trust in the offense or lean on his running backs. It’s one reason Green Bay’s red-zone offense was so stagnant.
Even with Aaron Jones being seemingly forgotten at times, he still put up a fantastic season. His 1,121 rushing yards led the team and still has an impressive career 5.1 yards per carry. Dillon started the season slowly but picked up steam, ending the year with 770 rushing yards and a team-leading seven rushing TDs. Both backs also played significant roles in the passing game.
It’s unlikely Love will share his predecessor’s reluctance to rely on the running backs, which should provide both backs even more opportunities. Sports Illustrated’s Jacob Westendorf highlighted the ground attack and the offensive line as two of the biggest reasons for optimism for the Packers in 2023. So just how far can the rushing offense carry the team?
Looking at the 2022 season, two teams come to mind when thinking of meh quarterback play but excellent running games: the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns. How did those teams fare?
Perhaps no back in the league has been the workhorse that Tennessee’s Derrick Henry has been since 2018. The Titans haven’t had much to write home about at quarterback in that time frame, from Marcus Mariota, to a slightly-rejuvenated Ryan Tannehill, to an unimpressive cocktail of Tannehill, Joshua Dobbs, and Malik Willis in 2022. But the combination of Henry and playing in a bad division has taken the Titans to the postseason in three of those seasons. (Henry might have been the best passer last season, completing two passes for four yards and one touchdown.)
On a league-high 349 rushing attempts, Henry put up 1,538 yards and 13 touchdowns. Tennessee had a largely ineffective passing attack (other than when they played Green Bay, of course). But Tannehill got injured after beating the Packers in Week 11, and the Titans lost every remaining game, missing the playoffs with a 7-10 record.
Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns had a fantastic tandem in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Chubb has proven himself as arguably the league’s best back, with Hunt a reliable No. 2.
The Browns moved on from Baker Mayfield last season and relied on Jacoby Brissett until D*shaun W*tson returned from his (far too short) suspension. Brissett probably exceeded expectations in his 11 games, throwing for 2,608 yards and 12 TDs. W*tson was rusty, getting 1,102 yards and seven TDs on 99 completions. That added up to a very unimpressive passing year.
But Chubb and Hunt kept the team relevant on pace to a 7-10 record. Chubb led the way with 1,525 yards and 12 TDs, with Hunt adding 468 yards and three more rushing TDs.
So both teams finished 7-10 and missed the playoffs. Not ideal, and right around Vegas’ projected win total for the 2023 Packers. But even if Love struggles, there are reasons to think Green Bay’s duo can carry the Packers farther than the 2022 Titans and Browns.
The first is simply how open the NFC is. Other than the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers, the NFC is a wide-open race compared to the cutthroat AFC. Even an average Packer team stands a good chance of cracking the postseason. The second is Christian Watson. If opposing defenses start stacking the box to stop the run, Watson is going to absolutely feast. The second-year receiver is so much more dynamic and athletically gifted than anything those other teams have, and he and Love appear to be developing good chemistry. Finally, Matt LaFleur is a better offensive playcaller than those in Cleveland or Tennessee.
Green Bay will use Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon more in 2023. They will need to carry the team if the passing offense takes too long to come together. Recent history suggests a good running game isn’t enough to carry an offense to the postseason on its own, but Green Bay has a few advantages other teams don’t. Ideally, Love can establish himself quickly. But if not, Jones and Dillon will need to put the team on their legs and defy recent trends.
