It’s easy to find players on the Green Bay Packers defense who regressed in 2022 because almost everyone did. Therefore, it’s reasonable to expect that at least some of them will bounce back this year. One player, in particular, could be a huge difference-maker: De’Vondre Campbell.
The off-ball linebacker was a great get for the Packers in 2021. He signed a cheap contract late in the offseason to be a veteran presence at a position the team had had a difficult time addressing. Surprisingly, Campbell ended up being a first-team All-Pro with impressive numbers: two sacks, six tackles for loss, and five passes defended. He also had the best missed-tackle rate among qualifying linebackers. That performance led the Packers to give him a five-year, $50 million extension last offseason.
Most people expected some kind of dropoff in performance because what Campbell did in 2021 was an outlier in his career. He had moments with the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals but hadn’t been nearly as productive. Still, Campbell’s step back was probably bigger than projected. Not because Campbell played poorly but because he was limited by injury for most of the season.
He missed four games with a knee injury. He also announced on Twitter that he had been limited before that injury because of a shoulder issue.
As expected, his total numbers dropped off. The worst aspect was the missed-tackle rate, going from 2.8 to 10.1%. Now he’s fully recovered. And his health status and performance is a massive benefit to the Packers in 2023.
The Packers also have second-year linebacker Quay Walker, a former first-round pick who is expected to develop and be a centerpiece for the defense. However, Green Bay’s roster construction indicated that they want two off-ball linebackers to produce at a high level. As I discussed last year, the idea of pairing a high-priced veteran with a high draft pick was to establish heavier-personnel gameplans.
It was a clear indication that defensive coordinator Joe Barry wanted to run fewer three-safety looks and replace them with two full-time linebackers, who are theoretically able to help the run defense while being staples in coverage. That’s why Campbell was impactful when healthy last year, even if he was not as good as he had been in 2021.
“When he came back, I think, you saw a difference,” Packers inside linebackers coach Kirk Olivadotti said. “We obviously started to play pretty well as a group. Every year’s going to be a little bit different. I do think that moving forward he’s in a pretty good spot right now, which is encouraging. He’s excited and ready to go this year.”
Lack of replacement plan
This is a year where the Packers don’t have many alternatives if Campbell doesn’t play at a high level. The team let Krys Barnes walk in free agency without applying a restricted free agent tender. He later signed with the Arizona Cardinals. Right now, Isaiah McDuffie is their best off-ball linebacker besides Campbell and Walker. McDuffie is a 2021 sixth-round pick who’s been mostly a special teamer throughout his NFL career. He played relatively well in a limited sample size last season, but it’s a step below in terms of the team’s expectation. Eric Wilson and Tariq Carpenter are the other options. Wilson is an experienced player but also mostly a special teamer. Carpenter is a converted safety who is, ahem, also a special teamer.
The idea of playing lighter boxes isn’t appealing either. Green Bay’s lack of investment at safety has been costly. As a result, they have one of the worst safety groups in the NFL. It might be hard to put two good safeties on the field, let alone three. Currently, Darnell Savage and Rudy Ford are the projected starters. Free-agent additions Jonathan Owens and Tarvarius Moore, plus seventh-round rookie Anthony Johnson Jr., are the projected backups.
Future
It’s also an important year for Campbell regarding his future with the Packers. He will make $5.25 million this year, but his earnings will jump to $10.75 million in 2024. If he doesn’t bounce back, it’s possible the Packers decide it’s time to move on. The dead money would still be significant at $11.6 million, but the team would open almost $3 million in 2024 cap space, plus $12.5 million in each of the 2025 and 2026 seasons. Moreover, teams have been more willing to see dead money as sunk cost when contracts don’t pay off — otherwise, they are just compounding mistakes.
If Campbell plays well again, it would make sense for the Packers to keep him. However, they may restructure his contract to lower his cap hit if necessary.
The Packers haven’t made significant free-agent additions, and it’s unfair to expect much immediate impact from the rookies. If Green Bay wants to be better this year, they need internal improvement from their own players. De’Vondre Campbell is one of those who could play at a higher level. He has already done it at some point in his career, so it’s a reasonable demand.
