The Minnesota Timberwolves have been one of the best first-half teams over the past two years, regularly scoring at will in the first 24 minutes. On Monday night, that trend continued for the Wolves. They scored 79 points in the first half and built a 19-point lead over the Atlanta Hawks by halftime. However, they lost the game by 14 points after scoring only 34 in the second half. It was a reminder that they hadn’t completely overcome last year’s poor habits.
In 2021-22, the Wolves ranked 5th in average third quarter margin but 28th in average fourth quarter margin. These numbers represent the average point differential teams faced in a quarter. Ranking 28th in the fourth quarter meant the Wolves were among the league’s worst performers in the quarter that season, even though they were playing well in the third quarter.
It often led to fourth quarter mishaps and an inefficient play style in late-game situations. That was on full display in their 2022 playoff series against the Memphis Grizzlies, where they lost multiple double-digit leads throughout the six games. However, that was a young Wolves team, so it was reasonable to assume they’d outgrow a bad habit many inexperienced teams have.
In 2022-23, the Wolves were more experienced. Much of the roster was the same, but they had moved three core players in the Rudy Gobert trade and eventually dealt D’Angelo Russell to the Utah Jazz for Mike Conley. Still, the second-half problems continued. The Wolves ranked 22nd in average third- and fourth-quarter margin. That led to a continuation of inconsistency for the Wolves and another low seed in the playoffs.
When looking at the other teams that struggled in the second half of games, it consists of younger and/or injury-plagued teams. The Denver Nuggets are an interesting case because they finished 29th in average fourth-quarter margin in 2021-22. Just like the Wolves, Denver was a playoff team that year. However, the Nuggets were without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. due to injury that entire year.
However, the Houston Rockets, a younger team in a rebuilding stage, have struggled in average third-quarter margin the past two seasons. They ranked 26th in 2021-22 and 29th the following season. These are the signs consistent with the younger teams in the league.
In the past two seasons, the Wolves finished in the top 10 in first-half points per game, a trend that could continue this season. After losing to the Hawks, Chris Finch partially attributed Minnesota’s second-half collapse to their inability to make shots despite finding “decent looks.” The Timberwolves had plenty of good shots available in the second half. But they still weren’t scoring at the same rate as earlier in the game.
During the Atlanta broadcast, Bally displayed a graphic showing the Wolves’ contrast in field goal percentage in both halves: 67% in the first and 22% in the second.
“No lead is really secure,” Finch said after the loss to the Hawks.
Whatever has contributed to these old habits continues to manifest. If the Wolves want to make their aspirations a reality, they must overcome these moments and rid them of their team’s identity. Finch isn’t solely to blame for these shortcomings, either. While he gives the team a lot of freedom, even in a more structured offense, there isn’t a single issue to pinpoint for these mishaps, or the Wolves would have already solved the problem.
Minnesota’s inability to respond when opponents turn the momentum on them is still concerning. They have moments of hesitancy, indecision, and an overall failure to stick to what got them a big lead in the first place. Even after Atlanta’s monstrous third quarter, the Wolves had every opportunity to close it out in the fourth. However, they played even worse in the final 12 minutes. That’s not only a sign of immaturity but the types of things that have hampered this team’s likelihood of reaching the next level in their development.
Fortunately, the Timberwolves were in the same position going into halftime on Wednesday night against the undefeated Denver Nuggets. The Wolves sustained the lead and won the game by 21 points. Unlike in Atlanta, they were consistent throughout the game. It’s just one game, but the Wolves know they’ll have to build on the performance to truly feel like they’ve overcome their second-half woes.
“The maturity comes when you stack performances like this on top of each other,” Finch said after the 110-89 win over the Nuggets, “that remains to be seen.”
The Wolves aren’t a young team anymore. Therefore, a performance like that has to become the standard.
