Offensive flow and cohesion have been one of the biggest challenges for the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns era. They did not get a large enough sample size in Year 1 due to injuries. Still, there is enough information to draw some conclusions. Despite these shortcomings, the Wolves ranked a solid 13th in half-court offense throughout this past season, scoring 99.3 points per 100 half court possessions.
However, the scope of the offense takes a turn when the team is playing in transition. They scored only 2.1 points per 100 possessions directly through transition play. That’s only more exaggerated when you consider the frequency with which they were able to run this play type. The Wolves were heavily reliant on their half-court offense, running 80.2% of their plays through that play type, a rate which is slightly above the 79.5% league average.
While this is a slim percentage difference from the norm, playing with a slower pace will only make it more difficult to get easy baskets off their opponents’ mistakes. Naturally, the Wolves trended towards the bottom of the league in transition frequency, ranking 18th with a 14.7% rate. Overall, they landed at 123.6 points per play, which ranks 24th in the league. Cleaningtheglass.com quantifies a play as anything that results in a shot, turnover, or free throw.
The lack of transition success significantly weighs down Minnesota’s ability to be an efficient offense. They ranked 23rd in the overall league scoring with 114.2 points scored per 100 possessions. With the talent that the Wolves have, they should strive to lean more toward the top half of the league instead of the latter.
It raises the overall question, how can the Wolves find a better balance within their offense? Specifically, they use their young athletic players, Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels, to their advantage. Ant has proven his scoring traits as a coast-to-coast scorer. He does extremely well with mismatches, overpowering smaller opponents or using his quickness to get around slower defenders. Jaden has shown that he can be effective as a cutter. He’s also an efficient scorer as a spot-up shooter and around the rim. They have the perfect tools to score on the open floor.
When you take a look at the game logs in which the Wolves scored 20 or more transition points, many coincided with a win:
When the Wolves scored over 20 transition points per game, as quantified by NBA.com, they held a record of 13-5. But when they get out and running, it not only takes the strain off the half-court offense but also leads to team success.
Here are all of the transition possessions on the night that they scored their season-high 32 points against the Washington Wizards:
The downside of this success is much of it came in games either one of KAT, Rudy, or both were missing due to injury. Can they increase their transition frequency while still being able to do so with that pairing on the floor? Only 5 of Minnesota’s 18 games played with 20+ transition points scored featured KAT and Rudy.
The Wizards game is a great example of how they can push the ball up the floor off a rebound through a ball handler, which can be maximized with Rudy and KAT on the floor through their rebounding abilities. The Wolves have the benefit of players of all sizes being optimal ball handlers in these situations in guards Mike Conley and Anthony Edwards but also forward Kyle Anderson. Giving them the versatility despite the two bigs being on the floor most of the game.
It must be a focal point for the Wolves to get out and running more often this upcoming season. It will coalesce the strengths of the young players, take the stress off the half-court offense, and also open up easier looks. Additionally, the transition play could lead to more run-and-gun three-point attempts, another facet of the game that the Wolves could increase to match prior success. They must find a successful balance while still limiting the chaos.
