Rudy Gobert has been a bright spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves this season. He has provided everything they wanted and needed when they traded for him a little over a year ago. Gobert has brought top-notch defense around the rim in drop coverage and has been a positive screen-and-roll threat. Rudy’s consistent play has been able to open up the offense for lobs and for ball-handlers to find their shot off the dribble.
Gobert isn’t taking the bulk of the shots, but he’s finding them for others, and that’s his true value. Rudy’s play has been vital for the offensive flow. He helps others gain separation off the dribble by being a stout screener as well as rolling hard to the rim forcing the defense to pay attention his way, creating a defined offensive role. His offensive role and abilities has been a frequent cause of concern when he is paired on the floor with Karl-Anthony Towns, but he has been able to simplify and streamline it back to more of what we saw in Utah. Gobert has been playing some of his best basketball we have seen in a Timberwolves jersey. However, it comes at a cost.
If Rudy is going to assert himself as the best player on the team, even this early on, there are some clear issues that the Wolves need to resolve because that is only going to take them so far. It likely means that Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards have not found consistency. Rudy is in a role where it’s easier to be consistent. Playing a primary off-ball offensive role and rim protection duties defensively, instead of Ant and KAT’s shot-making duties. Although still raises its concerns.
Gobert’s free-throw attempts and ability to draw fouls stand out the most regarding his comparison to his higher-usage teammates. Through the first 4 games of the season, Gobert is drawing more fouls per game than his teammates, averaging 5.0 FTA a game, trailing behind him is Ant with 4.25 FTA, and KAT with 2.5 FTA.
That is considerably more concerning when you compare the Timberwolves to the rest of the league. The Wolves are ranked tied 26th in the league in FTA per game, averaging only 18 FTA and drawing the second-fewest fouls per game with 16. Most of Rudy’s free throws come from forceful fouls from the defense to send him to the line as opposing defenses want to make him earn it rather than allowing an open dunk, due to Gobert’s lower FT%. Therefore, it highlights how infrequently the Wolves get to the line.
It’s a small sample size, but we’ve seen enough this season to know that KAT and Ant need to find better ways to use their talents downhill to get free points at the free-throw line. Last year, KAT ranked second in the NBA in drives per game with 7.3. That was second amongst centers, drawing 1.9 FT on those drives. In a limited sample size this year, Towns is driving 6.7 times per game, drawing 0.7 FT on those attempts.
Ant is in similar territory. He averaged 12.3 drives per game last season, drawing 2.5 FT on attempts. But he’s averaging 11 drives per game this season, drawing 2 FT on those attempts. It is a slight drop-off, but the two statistics correlate. Towns and Ant have shown they can get easy baskets using their size to their advantage driving downhill, but there is still a lot of room for growth.
On Monday, the Atlanta Hawks ran a lot more drop coverage in the second half against Minnesota’s pick-and-roll actions. Therefore, the Timberwolves had a hard time getting shots at the rim. Atlanta’s schematic change forced a lot of close-mid-range looks that were good shots for the Wolves, but Minnesota was unable to connect.
As we have seen numerous times in this early season and late last year, if the Wolves expose their transition defense when they miss consecutive shots. That’s especially true when the player who drives to the rim is out of control falling over to the floor or complains to the refs, something we see often with KAT and Ant. When they focus on the refs and linger back from the ball, it gets them further out of position. That allows the other team to counter, find an easy shot in transition, and continue their momentum. In the Atlanta game, they allowed the Hawks to come back from a 20-point deficit.
Rudy is only going to do so much for the offense. Therefore, Edwards and Towns must find ways to better involve themselves in games, particularly when Minnesota needs to find ways to slow down their opponent’s runs by stringing some buckets together. Dejounte Murray was on an absolute heater, scoring 22 points in the third quarter alone on Monday. The Wolves had no way to combat this. They played solid defense on Murray, but he refused to miss.
The Wolves continued to run their screen-centric half-court offense mostly through Mike Conley. When Towns and Edwards touched the ball, they were often forced into mid-close range looks that did not fall, or Clint Capela was there to deter their shot. Ant often looked for contested shots off the dribble, and KAT shooting post hooks directly into the help or having out-of-control drives. You cannot go that long without adjusting, simply feeding into the defense’s drop coverage.
If the Wolves want to find more stable success, Towns and Edwards need to find ways to continue to use Rudy and his tools on offense to their advantage. While they are limited and very simple, it will only help the higher-usage players find better shots, particularly in a better rhythm. It will only develop better flow and consistency.
It’s not possible to play a high level of basketball playing through Rudy alone. KAT and Ant need to step up their game, shot selection, and efficiency. It’s becoming a cliché, but the league is more talented than ever. Any team that takes a quarter off can fall victim to a comeback. The Wolves need to find offensive efficiency, and Gobert can only bring so much to the table, even when he is at the top of his game.
