After eight months of national hand-wringing over the Rudy Gobert trade, the Minnesota Timberwolves are finally seeing positive results from their big experiment. The Wolves had to endure a sub-par start to the season, 52 games without Karl-Anthony Towns, the D’Angelo Russell trade, and plenty of other obstacles that would have sunk past Timberwolves seasons.
But this team has shown resolve and fought back. A four-game winning streak has catapulted them into the fight for a top-six seed with five games left in the season. Finally at full strength and pushing to make the playoffs in consecutive years since the 2003-04 season, the Wolves have the talent at the top of the roster to make a real run in the Western Conference playoffs.
Just look at the top seven players in the Timberwolves’ roster (in no particular order):
- Anthony Edwards
- Karl-Anthony Towns
- Rudy Gobert
- Jaden McDaniels
- Kyle Anderson
- Mike Conley
- Naz Reid
I’m just going to say it, Minnesota’s top seven is better than every other NBA team’s top seven. It seems like a wild and reckless thing to say about the seventh-best team in the West that has the 15th-best record in the NBA. A team that’s 3-5 against the Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, and San Antonio Spurs, three teams that haven’t reached 20 wins this season and are actively tanking for Victor Wembanyama. But look at that list, and it’s tough to find another team with a top-seven rotation that features four All-Stars (Edwards, Towns, Gobert, Conley); a should-be first-team All-Defense shoo-in (McDaniels); the man who started a sexual awakening in Minnesota (Anderson); and the best back-up center in the league (Reid).
Let’s quickly go down the line. Edwards is having a breakout season. If not for his poorly timed sprained ankle, he would be in consideration for an All-NBA spot if the Wolves make the playoffs. Towns missed most of the season due to injury, but he has been part of the winning plays in the first two games he’s played since his return. Rudy’s had his struggles integrating into Chris Finch’s plan, but he’s back to being a beast averaging better than 16 points and 12 rebounds with almost two blocks per game over his last 16 games. McDaniels is one of the best defenders in the sport and his burgeoning offensive game has kept the Wolves afloat when bigger stars are held out.
Anderson might be Minnesota’s most important player, acting as the point guard, zone buster, and veteran leader. Conley is a steady hand who has 90 assists to only 21 turnovers since joining the Timberwolves in February. And Reid is about to make a ton of money this summer and is averaging better than 16 points and five rebounds in just over 20 minutes per game since the All-Star break.
No game this season showed off Minnesota’s deadly playoff rotation like Monday’s thriller against the Sacramento Kings. In the 119-115 win, which kept the Kings from clinching their first playoff birth since 2006, every member of the Wolves’ top seven (minus Towns who was resting his calf) scored in double figures, led by McDaniels’ 20 points. Rudy Gobert added 16 rebounds. Kyle Anderson and Anthony Edwards combined for 18 assists. Mike Conley and Naz Reid combined to his 13 of 20 shots. Even Minnesota’s eighth or ninth man, Jaylen Nowell, added 14 points off the bench in Towns’ absence.
Since Mike Conley came over in the D’Angelo Russell trade, Finch’s starting lineup featuring Conley, Edwards, Gobert, McDaniels, and Anderson is outsourcing opponents by more than eight points per 100 possessions in 226 minutes together. That would equate to the best offense and fourth-best defense over the entire season. It’s reminiscent of last year’s death lineup of Edwards, Towns, Russell, Patrick Beverley, and Jarred Vanderbilt that outscored opponents by almost 13 points per 100 possessions.
Looking at the top seven players on the other 20ish teams still vying for the playoffs, it’s easy to dismiss the Chicago Bulls, Oklahoma Thunder, New Orleans Pelicans sans Zion Williamson, Miami Heat, and Brooklyn Nets as less talented teams. The Los Angeles Lakers, Dallas Mavericks, New York Knicks, Los Angeles Clippers, and Kings are driven by two stars with plenty of depth, but little top line talent after their All-Stars.
The Golden State Warriors have a clear drop-off after their top five and are even weaker with Andrew Wiggins out for the foreseeable future. The Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors present interesting cases but lack the overall star power to contend. The Cleveland Cavaliers, Phoenix Suns, Philadelphia 76ers, and Denver Nuggets all have bigger stars and good depth overall. However, they fall one or two players short to beat out Minnesota’s top seven. That leaves the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, and Memphis Grizzlies.
The Grizzlies are led by the emerging big three of Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane. That’s as good of a young big three as there is in the league. Behind them is Tyus Jones, arguably the league’s best backup point guard, and Dillon Brooks, who for all his warts is a good defender and solid third-scoring option.
That top five might edge Minnesota’s, but after them is Luke Kennard, who is shooting 55 percent from three in a Grizzlies jersey, and then some combination of Brandon Clarke and Steven Adams. Unfortunately for the Grizzlies, both Clarke and Adams are hurt. Therefore, they will be heading into the playoffs with Santi Aldama their seventh-best player. To be fair, Aldama has been playing well, but he’s no match for Reid, giving the Wolves the slightest of edges over the second seed in the West.
The Celtics are coming off their first finals appearance since 2010, and are led by MVP candidate Jayson Tatum and All-NBA caliber guard/forward Jaylen Brown, arguably the best duo in the league right now. Both would probably walk onto the Timberwolves right now and be the best player on the team (Tatum definitely, Brown probably). Behind Jayson and Jaylen is likely Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon, Last Year’s DPOY Marcus Smart, and then some combination of Derrick White, Al Horford, Robert Williams, and Grant Williams. There’s a reason this team went to the finals last year and sit at 52 wins with six games left this year. Let’s revisit this one after we talk about the Bucks.
The Bucks have the best player in the league in Giannis Antetokounmpo, All-Star guard Jrue Holiday who just dropped 51 points on the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday, and Khris Middleton working his way back from injury. They’ve got the front runner for this year’s DPOY Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, Joe Ingles, and Grayson Allen to round out the top seven. I suppose it depends on how you look at this exercise, if Giannis’ greatness takes up so much space that there’s no way Minnesota’s depth can overcome it, or if he only counteracts Minnesota’s best player (Edwards), and down the line with Holiday vs. Towns, Middleton vs. Gobert and so on.
If you lean towards the first valuation of talent, then the Bucks and Celtics stars likely overpower the Wolves’ depth. However, if you match up each player one-to-one, Milwaukee and Boston likely take the top two matchups. But down the line, Minnesota’s depth with Rudy, Kyle, Mike, Jaden, and Naz power the Wolves past the Celtics and Bucks.
Is it possible that I’m wildly overrating Minnesota’s third through seventh-best players? No, and I will fight anyone who suggests so. Is it possible I’m underrating other teams’ role players whom I haven’t watched for 70-plus games this season? Guys like Grant Williams, Bobby Portis, and Dillon Brooks? That’s more likely.
However you break it down, Minnesota has one of the most talented rotations in the league. With five games left it remains to be seen if that talent will carry them into the playoffs, but if they get in, the Timberwolves should be feared by any team they match up with.
