For the last couple of weeks, trade rumors have circulated around several players on the Minnesota Timberwolves roster, especially Naz Reid. While it is unclear if the Wolves are interested in trading Reid before the deadline this Thursday, many other teams have expressed interest in acquiring him. Even though Naz has been great this season, the logic of trading him makes some sense from a bookkeeping perspective. Naz will become an unrestricted free agent in the offseason. He can sign a contract with any team, and the Wolves do not have the opportunity to exercise “team control” by matching the offer like they would if he was restricted.
Jake Fischer reported that Naz is looking for a $10 million per year contract. There is some skepticism that the Wolves would want to pay Naz that much given that they already have two centers signed for well over $70 million per year, which equals about 40% of the team’s current cap space. Additionally, if Naz wanted to play somewhere he could start, money might not persuade him to stay with the Wolves. The theory is that you could trade him for a similarly talented player at a different position to better balance your roster and prevent losing him for nothing in free agency.
These theories are logically sound, but I firmly believe that theories don’t matter in this situation. The Wolves need to pay Reid.
If the way he’s transformed his body and athleticism since entering the league isn’t enough to get the Wolves to pull out their wallet, I can assure you Naz has also gotten better on the court every year. In only his fourth season, Reid has already become respected nationally as one of the best backup centers in the league. He consistently makes the most of every opportunity he gets, and in an average of just 16 minutes per game this season, he’s putting up 10.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 0.9 blocks.
Many bench specialists struggle when given higher minute loads because they have to play more against other teams’ starters. However, Naz has mostly succeeded in remaining consistent with more responsibility and challenge. The Wolves are 6-2 in the games Naz has started this season, averaging 16.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 1.1 blocks as a starter. He also has a total +/- of plus-60. Reid didn’t drive winning in all of his starts. However, it is becoming clear that he is capable of starting, and he ccan startan be a major catalyst for winning in situations where he does. The Wolves would not have beaten the Golden State Warriors last week if not for Naz’s 24-point, 13-rebound performance and game-clinching dunk off his own miss in overtime.
While his 3-point shooting consistency has taken a slight dip from last season to 32.6%, Naz has improved his shooting efficiency from two-point range to an incredible 66.5%. Not only is this about 7% better than his previous career high, but it would also put him at seventh in the league in 2-point field-goal percentage had he played the requisite minutes to make Basketball Reference’s leaders list.
His awesome efficiency not only comes from continuing to perfect the jelly roll with his naturally smooth touch around the rim. It also comes from the athleticism he has worked so hard to improve. Reid is simultaneously strong enough to battle with some of the bigger centers in the league and fight through contact while also being able to blow by players off the dribble. From the eye test, Naz has some of the best burst speed of anyone in the league with his body type, outside of the super unicorn exceptions like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Zion Williamson. Naz also can outrun many defenders you’d expect to be able to stay in front of him during fast breaks, which has helped him get easier buckets and more emphatic dunks that get the team hyped.
On top of all that offensive improvement, Naz has become a much better defender. He currently holds the second-best defensive rating of any regular rotation player on the Timberwolves at 109, which is only one point behind Gobert’s 108. Naz is also tied with Jaden McDaniels for the fifth-best Defensive Box Plus Minus for rotation players at 0.7. While these stats can certainly be skewed by rotations that Naz plays with and against, his DBPM has improved every year since he entered the league. Watching him play, you can see how much better he has become at protecting the rim and flying around in Minnesota’s scramble coverages since his first few seasons.
The rate at which Naz has improved throughout his short career suggests that his ceiling is way higher than anyone could have guessed when he went undrafted. The only believers are probably Day 1 Jelly Fam fans. And interestingly, Naz’s Jelly Fam roots seem to be an integral part of what makes him such a unique player. In an interview with Sports Section, Naz said, “Growing up, all my friends were guards, so I was always doing all the drills that they would do, and little did I know how much it would come back and help me now.”
Those guard drills have paid dividends. Reid has incredible handles for a guy of his size, his shot motion is very smooth, and he has the craftiness around the rim of a guard who’s used to finding ways to score over much taller players. The team trusts Naz to take the ball coast to coast on fast breaks like a guard or wing. He’ll drop a spin move every once in a while that makes you wonder if he’ll be breaking everyone’s ankles in three years. If Naz continues to perfect his ball handling and improves his passing, he could establish himself as one of the most versatile big men in the league.
That potential is the most important reason the Wolves need to retain Reid. At just 23 years old, Naz is still several years from his prime, and at the rate, he is improving, I fully believe he has the potential to become a star. While that might not be the most likely outcome, it is undoubtedly an outcome worth investing in, especially if his projected salary of about $10 million is accurate. Even if Reid somehow plateaus and never improves after this season, $10 million per year is still a very fair contract for a player of his current skill level. Naz has been as important of a role player to the team this year as Kyle Anderson and Taurean Prince, who make around $10 million a year.
Ultimately, it doesn’t matter how many centers you have on your team or how ridiculous the cap sheet may look in a year or two. To win a championship, you need to pay your talented players what they deserve and figure the rest out later. Naz isn’t the same caliber of player as Jalen Brunson, but his situation is an excellent example of what can happen if you don’t value the talent on your roster. The Dallas Mavericks refused to pay Brunson what he deserved, lost him in unrestricted free agency, and traded away two of their best role players and draft assets to replace the hole he left.
Letting Naz walk, or trading him, means that you have no backup plan in place if Rudy and KAT continue to sustain more injuries as they get older. Or the Twin Towers experiment fails, and you must trade them to rebuild around Ant. Given that this season has proved Naz plays great with Ant and that the team can win games with Naz in and both Towers out, it should be a priority for the team to extend or re-sign him. They need to keep what’s left of the Wolves young core intact while they still can.
