Although he may be a new addition to the Minnesota Timberwolves roster this upcoming season, you may find that Troy Brown Jr.’s game may look very familiar. At the best of times, Brown can look like former Wolves player Robert Covington. He hustles, plays defense, shoots threes, and takes care of the ball.
The Wolves have been looking for a reliable bench stopper since Josh Okogie left, and they have been looking for a bench 3-and-D player since trading Covington in 2020. If Brown can build on a strong 2022-23 season, he might cement a spot in Minnesota’s bench rotation in 2023-24.
Starting with the offense, Troy Brown Jr. is an elite shooter from the corners, much like Covington was at times. In 2023, 59% of his field goals came from three, with a remarkable 95.3% of his makes from three being assisted. Last year, he excelled in a catch-and-shoot, off-ball role with the Lakers.
That’s something that the Timberwolves will be looking for with ball-dominant players like Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns in the starting lineup. They also have Kyle Anderson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, two dominant players, coming off the bench this season.
At first glance, Brown’s three-point shooting may look mediocre. He was just above league average at 38.1% from distance. However, looking further into his shot charts, his ability starts to shine through. He shot 43.4% from the left corner in the 2022-23 season and has historically shot 40.6% from the right corner over his career. However, it should be noted that his right corner 3 dipped to 37.1% in 2022-23. Below is an excellent example of Brown’s ability to shoot a corner three off the catch. It’s also notable that Brown’s shot never appears to change, regardless of his floor position or pressure.
Those shooting numbers are strikingly similar to Covington’s. Covington has shot 39% from the corners and has had a very similar off-ball roll in 2019 and with the Clippers in 2022-23. Also, like Brown, Covington made over 93% of his threes off assists in 2021-22 and 95% in 2022-23. The comparisons to Covington on offense do not end with the corner 3, though. Notice in the below clip how Brown makes another three of the catch, this time on the move.
Brown and Covington players are meticulous in taking care of the basketball with a low usage rate (percentage of team plays used by a player while they are on the floor). Brown’s usage rate over the past four seasons is an average of 12.3%, whereas Covington’s usage rate has averaged 14.2%. That further shows that both players remain effective in a primarily off-ball role.
The impressive part of this is that both players rarely turn the ball over when they do have an opportunity to make decisions. This is substantiated by the turnover ratio (a percentage of a player’s possessions that end in a turnover). Both players have been sub-10% over the past four years. After doing the math, that would mean just over 1 play per every 100 team possessions would result in a turnover by Brown.
The big difference between the two players is Brown’s ability to playmake. While both players have very low usage rates, Brown is still able to average 1.1 assists more per 100 possessions. For a player who primarily plays in the corner, this slight increase in playmaking should allow Brown to thrive with Minnesota’s bench unit, especially with Naz Reid, who is often diving to the rim off the ball or on fast breaks. Brown also has a competent hook pass, featured at the beginning of the compilation clip below.
Even on defense, Brown plays a lot like Covington. Despite the age difference, Brown and Covington’s defensive metrics also line up well. Through 2023, Brown had a defensive rating of 112.5 (amount of points estimated to give up over 100 possessions), which is almost identical to Covington’s average of 112.2 the past four seasons.
Although Covington is now in his 30s, his season average in the past four years shows that Brown’s last season is equivalent to what Wolves fans were used to seeing from Covington in 2019. The clip below highlights Brown’s ability to guard on-ball and finish in transition.
Rebounding is another area where both players stack up well. When looking at per 100 possessions statistics in 2023, Brown averaged 9.1 rebounds to Covington’s 9.5. Both players are around 6’7”. Having Brown’s ability to rebound at that size will be a massive improvement for the Wolves, especially given that he’s replacing Taurean Prince, who corralled 7.4 rebounds per 100 possessions.
Brown and Covington can also be seen in film crashing offensive rebounds from their corner positions. Brown Jr. even outperformed Covington in offensive rebounds, 1.8 to 1.0 per 100 possessions. The Wolves have needed a bench player who can crash the offensive glass. Brown’s hustle is also strikingly similar to fan-favorite Jarred Vanderbilt.
ESPN’s real adjusted plus-minus, a stat that tries to boil down a player’s impact to one number, highlights the crucial difference between Brown and Covington today. In 2022-23, Covington had a defensive real plus-minus of -0.76, meaning that he was a negative on defense. However, Brown was fantastic (1.62), ranking 22nd out of 78 qualified small forwards.
Brown’s real adjusted plus-minus met the eye test last year. He uses his length and athletic abilities to jump passing lanes while also staying in front of defenders, something that Wolves fans will remember seeing from Covington. For reference, in his first half season with Covington in Minnesota (2018-19), his defensive real plus-minus was 1.5, just lower than Brown’s most recent season.
To compare to outgoing Wolves forward Prince was a -6.27 in real plus-minus. By replacing Prince, Brown has an opportunity to meaningfully improve Minnesota’s team defense.
In the clip below, Brown’s instincts lead him to jump a pass for a steal:
Ultimately, signing Brown for two years may fill the hole the Wolves bench, that Prince has left. Brown is a low-usage 3-point shooter with a high IQ on offense. He’s also a capable stopper with rebounding ability on defense. If he can build on his 2022-23 season, he should far exceed the comparison to Robert Covington.
