Timberwolves

What Does Minnesota’s Future Look Like Without Naz Reid?

Photo Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Usually, when a team has a young player on their roster with the skill set to become a star in the NBA, that team would be eager to make that player a part of their long-term core. However, the Minnesota Timberwolves face a unique set of variables as they try to wrap up 6’10” center Naz Reid this summer.

“We’re fingers crossed that he’s [Reid] going to be here for a long, long time,” said Minnesota’s President of Basketball Operations, Tim Connelly, during his exit interview. “He loves the coaching staff. He loves the city. Sometimes I think you have to be cognizant of how important familiarity is both with player and staff. We’ve been working pretty hard to try to figure out something more long-term for Naz. Hopefully, that thing gets done sooner rather than later.”

There’s no doubt about it; if the front office had it their way, Reid would likely have already signed a long-term extension. However, as much as Reid would love to return, he’s still weighing his options with other teams.

In a recent interview with Chris Hine of Star Tribune, Reid discussed the challenging decisions that he faces this summer.

Leaving them [Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels] would be a little heartbreaking, but they understand as well. Obviously, we’re trying to push the opposite way to stay together. They’ve tried. I’m hanging out with them all the time. We’re getting closer and closer, so it would be hard for me to leave those guys.

I don’t really know what to expect. Everything is coming left and right, and it’s just like, I don’t know, I’m ready for the time to come because I don’t know what to expect. I definitely would love to stay back in Minnesota, for sure. But it’s a business, and everything has to play out for both parties.

Despite Reid’s apparent desire to return with the Wolves, it may be an appropriate time for us to explore a future without Reid on the roster.

Lacking Scoring Off the Bench

Minnesota’s bench mob struggled to produce offense last season. Heading into the year, I believed that the Wolves were the deepest team in the NBA. However, as we all know, that prediction was far off the mark. The Wolves seemed incredibly deep on paper with key acquisitions like Kyle Anderson, Austin Rivers, Bryn Forbes, and Eric Paschall. What ultimately came back to bite them was a lack of relative health and an inability to get on the same page with each other.

The silver lining to Minnesota’s bench woes was the unique and diverse offensive talents that Naz brought on a game-to-game bias, regardless of the stats. Without Reid on the floor this season, the Wolves were able to connect on 3.3 more points per 100 possessions. Statistically, Minnesota was better when Reid was off the court last season.

Graph provided by cleaningtheglass.com

The higher results of team-wide success are likely a product of Reid sharing the floor with the otherwise poor bench rotation. It’s hard to gauge a sixth man’s impact with on/off numbers. However, if you were able to watch pretty much any game that Reid was active in last season, you’d be able to tell pretty quickly how good he is on both sides of the ball.

Who Fills In For Reid?

Reid averaged a career-high 11.5 points per game last season and tallied eight total 20+ point games, so finding a replacement for him will be crucial. Now, a domino in potentially losing Reid this summer is Minnesota’s financial situation and the NBA’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Those variables would make it hard for the front office to find a player similar to Naz’s caliber that would accept a mid-to-league minimum-level contract. However, the Wolves have two up-and-coming bigs who would be able to give Chris Finch some meaningful minutes.

We have yet to see a particularly large sample size from Nathan Knight or Luka Garza. However, the two of them bring unique skill sets that could produce winning basketball.

  • Knight – aggressive defender, great on the pick-and-roll, and solid rebounder.
  • Garza – the ability to space the floor with great back-to-the-basket, low-post moves.

Next season, Knight will be making $1.9 million, while Garza, who’s currently a restricted free agent, would only eat up $1.7 million should he be resigned. Both contracts combined are much lower than whatever contract extension Reid will receive this summer. This will allow for more leniency finically for Minnesota – especially when trying to keep a super-max contract around long-term.

Can KAT Stick Around, Then?

All the speculation and rumors surrounding the Timberwolves this off-season have all been centered around the likelihood that Karl-Anthony Towns will be traded. It’s only mid-July, but I’m already tired of talking about the KAT trade rumors. However, if Reid chooses to leave Minnesota this summer, that may open up a chance for the Wolves to be able to keep Towns as a part of the long-term core.

As of now, most of the KAT trade chatter is open-ended. From what’s been said inside the team, it seems as if the plan will be to run back last season’s starting five and see what they can do when (hopefully) fully healthy. It feels next season will be make or break for Minnesota. We may see a blowup internally if they fall short of expectations while enjoying relative health. However, KAT may not be a part of a significant roster retool if Connelly and Co. can figure out how to keep him on the payroll for the rest of his super-max contract. That may only be obtainable if Reid is no longer on the roster.

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