Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/12

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Utah Jazz Team Total Over 120.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on NBATV

If Jazz team totals continue to be offered in this range for their home games, I’m going to keep taking the over on what I believe is a discounted number. The line on this game actually flipped the favorite overnight, and the total ticked down just a bit, adding even more value on this number in my opinion.

Utah is now fourth in scoring for home games at 123.9 PPG, and they have a better offensive efficiency mark at home than teams like the Suns, Clippers, and Hawks. They just keep getting into the 120’s at home without fail, and even though the Golden State defense has shown improvement, I’m not walking away from this Jazz trend anytime soon.

 

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Kansas/Texas Tech First Half Under 68.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN

The total in this game is crashing despite much higher projections from metrics sites. That’s the signal I’ve been seeing in recent weeks, and I think the movement is justified. This situation for Kansas is eerily similar to last Monday, when they went on the road to a hostile environment after a gritty home win. That game was a dead under as the Jayhawk offense had its usual struggles on the road, and those should continue here.

An excellent interior defense for Texas Tech should help slow down a Kansas team that’s extremely reliant on two-point shooting. The Red Raiders should also be able to dictate pace on their home floor, slowing this game down considerably with their 273rd adjusted tempo. And a big key will be the status of Dejuan Harris for KU, whose bad ankle is probably contributing to the movement on the total. With this game lined so tightly I want to avoid late foul-game points and OT potential, so look for the first half to get off to a slow start tonight.

 

Degenerates

NBA Minnesota Timberwolves +2 First Half @ LA Clippers (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:30 PM CT on Bally Sports North

The Wolves have been horribly inconsistent over the past few weeks, seeming to alternate excellent performances with disgusting losses. Hidden inside that overall inconsistency though is a very consistent theme of good first halves, and I think they can keep inside this number again tonight. The biggest halftime deficit Minnesota has seen the past 12 games is a mere 5 points, and they’ve led at half in 8 straight games. The Clippers are 3rd in average first half margin but just 12th in their own building, plus the Wolves led them at halftime of the first meeting. With new toy Monte Morris set to debut in this game, I’m fairly confident we’ll see a tight one early in LA tonight

 

 

Tiny Nick is 2043-1844 ATS (+97.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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