Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Chicago Bulls +2.5 @ Miami Heat (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
On Wednesday I touted Miami as a team you never want to go against in the playoffs. Well that all changes with Jimmy Butler being announced out, and I’m surprised to see the Heat still lined as this much of a favorite. Without Butler, there’s a significant drop-off in the perimeter defense for Miami, and I think the Bulls have too much perimeter scoring right now for the Heat to handle. Granted it was the Hawks and their putrid defense, but I saw a Chicago team with a lot of confidence on Wednesday night. If they bring that and their red-hot shooting to South Beach tonight, they’ll come away with the win.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Chicago Bulls Team Total Over 101.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
Chicago’s style is going to get them into higher-scoring games, but without Butler for Miami I’d rather focus on the Bulls to score than both teams to get over the full-game number. Butler played in all four regular season meetings, and the Bulls managed to average 110.5 points per game. With how their offense looks lately, averaging 114.1 PPG the final 10 games of the regular season, I’m confident they find their way over this team total.
NBA Play-In Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.75 Unit – Nikola Jovic Over 12.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)
0.5 Unit – Caleb Martin Over 18.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jaime Jaquez Over 21.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Coby White Over 20.5 Points (-110)
0.25 Unit – Bam Adebayo Over 0.5 Made Three’s (+130)
0.5 Unit – Jonas Valanciunas Over 23.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.25 Unit – Harrison Barnes Over 19.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
MLB (0.5 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks First 5 Innings Moneyline @ SF Giants (+100; Odds via Caesars): 9:15 PM CT on AppleTV+
I think we’re starting to see why Blake Snell took so long to land with a team this offseason. The reigning Cy Young winner has been roughed up in both of his starts, and those have come against much lesser offenses than he’ll face today. The Diamondbacks are one of baseball’s best against lefthanded pitchers like Snell, scoring the most runs and hitting for the best average among other deeper metrics.
If they can get to Snell early like has happened in the other starts, then I’m confident Jordan Montgomery hold the Giants down. It’s Montgomery’s first start in an Arizona uniform so he isn’t likely to pitch many innings, so I’ll focus on the D’backs taking an early lead before suspect bullpens for both teams get involved.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2204-1999 ATS (+98.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
