Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on NBA TV
Ok, I guess if all the home teams are going to dominate, might as well keep betting on them. Cleveland was very impressive in their Game 1 win, and if they’re going to make outside shots like they did on Saturday then Orlando is not going to keep up. The Magic just don’t have the perimeter scoring needed, and trying to score inside against Cleveland’s size is a big ask. Orlando might turn in another solid defensive effort here, but until I see some offense show up for them it’ll be Cavs all day for me.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Orlando Magic/Cleveland Cavaliers Under 203 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
The Magic did one thing right on Saturday in holding Cleveland to just 97 points, the problem is they still got run out. I think we see more 90’s-style basketball tonight in Game 2, and nobody wants any part of the over in this one as the total has been crashing. That lack of scoring pop for Orlando is going to force them into a very specific style of basketball here, one that Cleveland is used to themselves, and should result in another quiet night of scoring.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers @ NY Knicks -4.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
The Knicks won and covered Game 1 despite a rough game out of star Jalen Brunson, who could not shoot one bit on Saturday. That speaks to the depth and toughness of the Knicks, and their ability to shut down the pieces around a hobbled Joel Embiid. The Sixers star big man is obviously not healthy enough to carry his team, and this spread would be far higher if he wasn’t available. I don’t think it’s properly pricing in his health, and a bounce back game from the New York stars should carry them to a comfortable win.
NBA (0.5 Unit Each) LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets -1.5 First Quarter & -3.5 First Half (-110 Each; Odds via BetMGM): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
Thanks Denver for falling on your collective faces early Saturday and trailing at the end of the first quarter and half. That performance caused these numbers to dip and become even more attractive for tonight’s rematch, and I’m not afraid to go after them again. I’m still plenty confident in the handicap since the metrics and trends were always there, and now the motivation to have a better start is there for the Nuggets. I think they get that better start to this game and put the Lakers away a little earlier tonight.
NBA Playoff Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – Paolo Banchero Over 22.5 Points (-110)
1 Unit – Jalen Brunson Over 38.5 Points+Assists (-110)
1 Unit – Josh Hart Over 29.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.25 Unit – Miles McBride Alt Points Over 9.5 (+135)
0.25 Unit – LeBron James Alt Made Three’s Over 2.5 (+200)
0.25 Unit – Austin Reaves Alt Made Three’s Over 2.5 (+220)
0.25 Unit – Anthony Davis Over 0.5 Made Three’s (-110)
0.75 Unit – D’Angelo Russell Under 24.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Aaron Gordon Over 6.5 Rebounds (+105)
MLB (0.75 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks ML @ St Louis Cardinals (-105; Odds via Fanduel): 6:45 PM CT on ARID
It can be tough to back Brandon Pfaadt and Arizona because something always seems to go wrong in his starts. But it’s easy to fade Lance Lynn, and that’s what I’m doing here. The veteran right for St Louis has been getting extremely lucky so far this season, and I think it runs out today against a high quality and disciplined lineup. Lynn has benefited from a weak slate of opponents and some runs going unearned, holding his ERA down to what appears to be a great number. But his expected metrics tell a different story of a high xERA and xFIP, which will catch up with him eventually. At this cheap of a price, I’ll bet that it happens tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2219-2022 ATS (+96.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
