Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Phoenix Suns/Minnesota Timberwolves 1st Half Under 109 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
NBA (0.75 Unit) Indiana Pacers/Milwaukee Bucks 1st Half Under 108.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on NBA TV
NBA (0.75 Unit) Dallas Mavericks/LA Clippers 1st Half Under 111 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
These NBA playoffs have been a crapshoot where handicapping of the games has gotten nearly impossible, so it’s time for some good old-fashioned trends betting. Playoff first halves are on a 14-2-1 under run, and I’m not seeing enough adjustment in these numbers compared to the full-game total. I’ll be holding my nose and betting these in hopes that something starts making sense in this postseason.
NBA Playoff Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+100)
0.5 Unit – Devin Booker Over 2.5 Made Three’s (+115)
0.5 Unit – Kevin Durant Under 36.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Devin Booker Under 35.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.25 Unit – Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 1.5 Steals+Blocks (+195)
0.75 Unit – Pascal Siakam Over 35.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)
0.5 Unit – Damian Lillard Under 6.5 Assists (+105)
0.25 Unit – Tyrese Haliburton Under 2.5 Made Three’s (+115)
1 Unit – Ivica Zubac Over 23.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)
0.5 Unit – Kyrie Irving Over 34.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.25 Unit – Luka Doncic Under 52.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
MLB (1 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+125; Odds via Caesars)
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves -260: 6:20 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
The Braves have absolutely dominated this series in recent years, going 25-11 across the past 3 seasons including 3-1 this year. They aren’t losing tonight, not with Max Fried on the mound as he rounds into form. The Braves have won all of his starts this season, including one against Miami with this exact same pitching matchup. The Marlins can’t hit lefties like Fried, so shouldn’t be able to provide any support to their own struggling starter, the winless Trevor Rogers. Atlanta just doesn’t miss in these spots, and this is a good moneyline price as a parlay piece.
Baltimore Orioles -160 @ LA Angels: 8:38 PM CT on ESPN+
This is another matchup of starting pitchers that we’ve already seen this season, and it should have a similar result. Grayson Rodriguez and the Orioles dominated the Angels and their starter Griffin Canning early this season. Baltimore has gone on to win all of Rodriguez’s starts this season, while the Angels are winless when Canning starts. The Orioles are a top-5 offense in just about every metric against righthanded pitching, so they should get to Canning again with ease. And with how well Rodriguez has been pitching this season it shouldn’t take much for the Orioles to pull away, and they should win comfortably here to close the parlay.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2224-2032 ATS (+93.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
