Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics Team Total Over 109.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on TNT
The Boston Celtics can play with their food all night and still probably get close to this number. The best offense in NBA history by offensive rating is no match for a Heat team that’s just going through the motions in this series. Miami really hasn’t stood much of a chance against Boston all season, as the Celtics went over this number in every meeting. Put it this way: the Heat went on a 22-5 run in the 4th quarter of Game 1, still lost by 20, still didn’t cover, and the Celtics still went over this team total. It’s a mismatch plain and simple, Boston will do whatever they want tonight.
Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Boston Celtics First Half Team Total Over 56 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
Here’s another thing the Celtics did consistently against Miami this season. In the regular season meetings, Boston went over this first half total each time with 65.3 points on average. Then they went and hung another 60 before halftime of Game 1 on Sunday. It shouldn’t be any surprise for the team that led the NBA in first half scoring this season with 62.8 on average and 63.1 at home, so look for another big opening half out of them tonight.
NBA Playoff Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.25 Unit – Tyler Herro Over 3.5 Made Three’s (+140)
0.25 Unit – Derrick White Alt Made Three’s Over 3.5 (+160)
0.5 Unit – Jaime Jaquez Over 23.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Payton Pritchard Over 10.5 Points+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Derrick White Over 21.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Nikola Jovic Over 13.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Brandon Ingram Under 30.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Chet Holmgren Over 25.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)
0.5 Unit – Chet Holmgren Over 3.5 Blocks+Steals (-110)
1 Unit – Jonas Valanciunas Over 24.5 Points+Rebounds (+100)
MLB (0.75 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies/Cincinnati Reds First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-125; Odds via Fanduel): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports OH
While these offenses are potent, the starting pitchers tonight are performing at elite levels right now. Spencer Turnbull for Philadelphia has been borderline untouchable with a 1.23 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and expected metrics that are also stellar. Cincinnati’s weakness has been against righties like Turnbull, so I expect him to turn in another strong start.
And with Nick Lodolo going for the Reds, it’s likely the Phillies struggle as well. Lodolo has had two excellent starts to begin the year, and has strong historical numbers against the Phillies bats. With cool weather also in Cincinnati today, don’t expect the ball to be jumping or the scoreboard to be busy, at least early on.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2232-2037 ATS (+94.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
