Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) OKC Thunder -1 @ New Orleans Pelicans (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on TNT
I’ve been careful with this series since the Pelicans were such a good road team in the regular season. But back in New Orleans they have a much worse ATS record, and some strange statistical splits as well. The Pels brought a significant size advantage into this series as well, but the Thunder have successfully navigated that challenge as well. I’ve come to the conclusion that OKC really is ready for the moment as a young team, showed how much of a mismatch this can be in their Game 2 blowout, and are priced well here for me to back them.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Boston Celtics First Half Team Total Over 55 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on TNT
While I don’t trust Joe Mazzulla against Erik Spoelstra one bit, I do trust the Celtics to bounce back offensively from the ugly Game 2 performance just by pure mean reversion. They don’t need any mean reversion to keep piling up points before halftime though, as they’ve put up 60 and 61 in these playoff games, and an average of 63.4 in all games against Miami this season. The frustrations from Game 2 for Boston should get taken out right away, and if they can knock down shots against the Miami zone, they’ll reach this early total.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Denver Nuggets -3.5 @ LA Lakers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC
Get the brooms out. The Lakers just don’t match up with Denver’s talent, it’s not a fair fight at this point. Plus, after talking about how basketball really isn’t that important after Game 3’s collapse, obvious team chemistry issues, and the reward for winning tonight being a beating back in Denver, I expect the Lakers to roll over here. As always seems to be the case, the Nuggets might find themselves trailing by a decent margin, but they’ll recover, take over, and finish off another sweep of LA.
NBA Playoff Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
1 Unit – Jonas Valanciunas Over 24.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)
0.75 Unit – Chet Holmgren Over 28.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Josh Giddey Under 19.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.75 Unit – Caleb Martin Over 14.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)
0.75 Unit – Tyler Herro Over 3.5 Made Three’s (+110)
0.5 Unit – Jaime Jaquez Over 22.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Nikola Jovic Over 13.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)
0.5 Unit – Delon Wright Over 10.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.75 Unit – Anthony Davis Over 42.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Austin Reaves Over 23.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Michael Porter Jr Over 7.5 Rebounds (+100)
0.5 Unit – Aaron Gordon Over 7.5 Rebounds (+105)
0.25 Unit – Nikola Jokic Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+165)
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2255-2061 ATS (+94.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
