Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 105.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on TNT
Do the Wolves smell blood and finish off the wounded Suns here? A lifetime of watching Minnesota sports would suggest no, but this team feels different. Just in case though, I’m going to stay away from that angle and keep rolling with their team total, which I think is not necessarily correlated to one result or the other in the game.
Getting into the 120’s is something Minnesota never did in the regular season against Phoenix, but has done twice in this series. I think it’s a matter of depth, with Minnesota able to score against the threadbare Suns bench which raises their scoring floor considerably. Look for it again tonight as they look to avenge a regular season sweep with a postseason one.
NBA (0.5 Unit) NY Knicks Team Total Over 102.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on ABC
The Knicks have been extremely consistent offensively in this series, boosted by some excellent statistics. They’ve shot it ridiculously well from deep, over 40% which would’ve led the NBA this season, and that’s very capable of continuing against an average perimeter defense for Philadelphia.
But it’s mainly the overall efficiency for the Knicks that’s encouraging for this bet, as they’ve averaged 1.153 points per possession in this series which would’ve placed them 4th in the league this season. With Joel Embiid hobbling around the court this Sixers defense really loses its anchor, and I think the Knicks can keep putting up points on them today win or lose.
NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Clippers/Dallas Mavericks Under 209.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ABC
I think it needs to be said that Kawhi Leonard is holding the Clippers back. He looks like a shell of his former self with this bad knee, and it bogs down the offense while allowing Dallas to control the game. The difference is plainly obvious between how LA played in Game 1 compared to the past two games.
I expect him to be out there today with his team in a precarious situation for this series. That should allow the Mavericks to keep playing these games at their preferred style, which has become lockdown defense and a slower tempo. We haven’t reach this total yet in this series with 195.3 points on average, so look for another grind of a game here that stays under.
NBA Playoff Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – Rudy Gobert Over 27.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)
0.5 Unit – Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 11.5 Points+Assists (-110)
0.75 Unit – Tyrese Maxey Over 36.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.75 Unit – Jalen Brunson Over 42.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.75 Unit – Josh Hart Over 30.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Joel Embiid Over 49.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.75 Unit – Luka Doncic Under 53.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Kawhi Leonard Under 27.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Ivica Zubac Over 22.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)
0.5 Unit – Daniel Gafford Under 14.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – PJ Washington Over 17.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)
0.5 Unit – Myles Turner Over 2.5 Made Three’s (-110)
0.5 Unit – Ben Sheppard Over 7.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Tyrese Haliburton Over 11.5 Assists (+105)
0.5 Unit – Tyrese Haliburton Under 2.5 Made Three’s (-110)
0.75 Unit – Pascal Siakam Over 35.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)
MLB (0.5 Unit) San Francisco Giants Team Total Under 3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on SportsNet PT
It’s Jared Jones Day again, which should mean we’ll see more struggles from the opposing team. Today’s victim might be close to perfect for the Pittsburgh rookie, as the Giants struggle against his best pitches. San Francisco just can’t hit high velocity fastballs or sliders, which Jones has been using to embarrass hitters all season. The Giants can go into offensive slumps on a normal day, so with this elite pitcher that they’ve never seen before going, expect them to struggle to score today.
Bonus Prop Bet (1 Unit): Jared Jones Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+105; Odds via DraftKings)
Jones has gone over this total in every start this season while making opposing batters look foolish. Now he faces a team that struggles against his best pitches and there’s a plus-money return on the over, so sign me up.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2262-2068 ATS (+93.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
