Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics First Half Team Total Over 55.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
For most of these NBA playoffs I wouldn’t hit water if I fell out of a boat. But this has been one consistent bright spot, both in the playoffs and regular season. The Celtics have figured out they need to pressure the Heat’s mediocre guards, which creates live-ball turnovers and easy transition points. They also have to go back to Boston up 3-1, so look for the league’s best first half offense to step on the gas early and get over this total once again.
NBA (1 Unit) OKC Thunder -4.5 @ New Orleans Pelicans (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on NBA TV
This has been another spot of consistency in the playoffs, with the Thunder showing their vast superiority to the Pelicans the past two games. OKC is too good defensively, especially against a team with limited offensive firepower as Zion Williamson remains out, Brandon Ingram is hobbled, and CJ McCollum is ice cold. While sweeps are all that common, New Orleans looks ready to accept their fate against a young team that’s coming of age quickly, so I like the Thunder to roll here.
NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Lakers +2.5 First Quarter @ Denver Nuggets (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
While it’s fairly likely that the road ends here for the Lakers, I don’t think it ends right away. They keep putting up a fight early in the game, winning every first quarter of this series and posting a plus-27 margin across the four games. Now with a small amount of confidence after finally finishing off a game, the Lakers are once again catching a solid number for the opening quarter. Additionally, Denver could be without Jamal Murray tonight, so look for the Lakers to make things interesting early on.
NBA Playoffs Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – Bam Adebayo Over 19.5 Points (-110)
1 Unit – Nikola Jovic Over 16.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Delon Wright Over 10.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Tyler Herro Under 4.5 Rebounds (+105)
0.75 Unit – Brandon Ingram Under 32.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – CJ McCollum Under 30.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.25 Unit – Isaiah Joe Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+130)
0.5 Unit – Nikola Jokic Over 51.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Anthony Davis Over 42.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – D’Angelo Russell Under 22.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.25 Unit – Nikola Jokic Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+175)
MLB (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Twins Team Total Over 4.5 (+115; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on FS1
It looks as though the Twins have solved some of their hitting problems, and a bad pitcher tonight should help them continue the hot streak. That’s consecutive sweeps for the Twins as they apparently provided inspiration to the Wolves, and they’ve gone over this number in all of those 7 straight wins.
One of them was last Wednesday when they faced the White Sox and starter Garrett Crochet who goes again tonight. The big lefty has some good pitches, but he’s been figured out, getting crushed the past few games including against Minnesota last week. With a weak bullpen behind Crochet, the White Sox should surrender plenty of runs to the hot Twins bats.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2266-2079 ATS (+89.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
