Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers/Boston Celtics Over 208.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on TNT
The playoff adjustment on the total here is drastic, and I’m going against it for Game 1. These teams went 1-2 to the over in their meetings this season, but that was against totals 10-20 points higher than tonight. They were 3-0 over this number, and there are some angles that suggest they’ll find their way over again.
First and foremost is Cleveland’s defense struggling on the road in the playoffs, allowing 112.0 PPG in Orlando to the offensively challenged Magic. Forgetting your defense at home is going to make facing the highest-rated offense in NBA history pretty difficult. But the Cavs are going to have a significant size advantage in this series with Kristaps Porzingis out, so look for them to get some easy points inside. It won’t be enough to counter the barrage of Boston three’s, but should help push this game over the total.
NBA (1 Unit) Dallas Mavericks Team Total Over 107.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on TNT
The Mavericks had a strange regular season series with the Thunder, as only one of the four meetings saw both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving play. It was completely unfair as Dallas dropped 146 points. Even in the games where just one of the star duo played, the Mavs managed 119 and 120 points so they know how to attack this Thunder defense.
OKC looked pretty good against the offensively challenged Pelicans without Zion, but this is a totally different situation for them. I think a Dallas team that finally started heating up in the last few games against the Clippers should carry that momentum into tonight and eclipse this team total again.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Dallas Mavericks ML @ OKC Thunder (+140; Odds via Caesars)
I keep going back to that one game where the ideally constructed Mavericks roster ran the Thunder out of the building by 35 points. This young OKC team finally has to contend with a playoff opponent that has elite scorers, and it may take them time to adjust from the easy first round sweep. Dallas is extremely well-rounded when healthy, and I think their chances of stealing Game 1 make this moneyline price well worth it.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2279-2092 ATS (+89.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
