Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves -4 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on TNT
Let’s. Freaking. Go. After an incredible sweep of Phoenix and an even more incredible Game 7 win, I can’t wait for what the Wolves have in store next. While I don’t particularly like the number here, and also don’t like the fact that it really hasn’t moved at all, I do think the Wolves have the advantage. Minnesota hasn’t actually faced the post-trade deadline Mavericks, so not much can be taken away from the regular season series.
But it’s the playoffs where star power is most important, and the Wolves have the ability to lock down Dallas’ stars whereas I don’t see that happening in reverse. Luka Doncic has not looked healthy all postseason, the Maxi Kleber absence is important for Minnesota’s size advantage, and I don’t think anyone can lock Anthony Edwards down right now. Momentum and a wild Target Center should play a role here as well, so I’m backing the Wolves to win by margin for a 1-0 series lead.
MLB (0.5 Unit) SF Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates -0.5 First 5 Innings (+110; Odds via BetMGM): 5:40 PM CT on SportsNet PT
Blake Snell makes his return from the injured list tonight, but he’s going to have to prove that he isn’t completely washed. Snell was lit up in all three starts to begin the year before going out, and it’s starting to make sense why it took so long for him to get picked up by a team in the offseason. At this point Jared Jones for Pittsburgh is the far better pitcher, and actually one of the best pitchers in baseball according to deeper metrics. He’s been elite at home with a 1.80 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a .194 opponent batting average. So if he can hold the Giants down while the Pittsburgh bats – which are far better against lefties – get to Snell for any production, then the Pirates should find themselves leading after 5 innings here.
Degenerates
WNBA Seattle Storm Team Total Over 86.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on WTHR-13
Keep an eye on the status of Nneka Ogwumike for this game, but if she plays I think the Storm can keep up the trend of exploiting this Indiana defense. The Fever have allowed every opponent to clear this total on the year, giving up 93.3 PPG so far. The Storm might not be on the level of the offenses Indiana has faced so far, but with Ogwumike healthy they certainly have the potential behind a trio of excellent players. Seattle needs a breakout game to help their overhauled roster gel, so facing the worst defense in the league the past two years running could be just what’s needed.
Tiny Nick is 2292-2110 ATS (+85.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
