Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Indiana Pacers Team Total Over 107.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
Heartbreak for the Pacers on Tuesday shouldn’t stop them from continuing to score at a high rate in this series. This offense is too good, the second-best in NBA history by net rating to only the Celtics, so points should pile up between these squads. Boston has no rim protection until Kristaps Porzingis comes back, and even that won’t give me too much concern, so the Pacers should be able to continue getting points from easy looks. While this number has crept up from Tuesday, I’m confident Indiana can stay hot.
Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Boston Celtics First Half Team Total Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
I’m also confident that Boston will continue piling up early points against this weak Indiana defense like they have all year. It’s simply a bad matchup to have the league’s highest-scoring team in first halves face the defense that’s 28th in first half points allowed. The Pacers have a poor perimeter defense that will allow the Celtics to continue firing away from deep, and no defensive stopper to prevent the 1-on-1 actions that are key to Boston’s offense. The 64 points Boston put up in the first half on Tuesday should be considered the norm, so the minor adjustment on this number is not enough.
MLB (0.6 Unit) Colorado Rockies/Oakland A’s Over 7.5 (-120; Odds via Fanduel): 2:37 PM CT on NBCS-CA
This series has had more scoring than expected between two lower-level offenses, and now both teams will send out terrible starting pitchers. With Ryan Feltner going for Colorado, you can typically expect disaster as the righty has a 6.65 ERA and .307 opponent batting average on the road, much higher than in the thin air of Coors Field. That’s about as big a warning sign as you can get, so look for the A’s to get theirs today.
But Oakland has a rookie starter in Joey Estes going, and his minimal time in the big leagues has been rough. These offenses haven’t been as awful as you’d expect, so against poor pitching I think they can put up runs today. With this being a day game where the temperature will be higher and wind is blowing out to right, this sets up well to get over a very low number.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2293-2111 ATS (+85.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
