Locks
WNBA (1 Unit) Washington Mystics First Half Team Total Over 38.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on FOX13
The Mystics snuck over this exact number on Saturday against an excellent Lynx defense. That has extended their run of success at home to 11-2 over this first half total with 10 in a row. Ironically, one of the outliers came against the Storm in the third game of the year for Washington, back before they found any kind of footing for the season. But their reliability in home first halves can’t be ignored, and I think they’ll have success here against a Seattle defense that has struggled since the season picked back up.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Dallas Wings Team Total Over 81.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBA TV
On paper, this does not look like a fair fight with how well New York has played coming out of the break. But there are a couple of factors that make me believe Dallas will be able to have enough success offensively to get over this team total. The Wings cruised over this number in their first game out of the Olympics break, putting 91 points on a very good Connecticut defense.
The key there was welcoming back Satou Sabally for her first game of the season, and her impact was immediately felt with 20 points. I think with their core back intact, Dallas can be dangerous to a team like New York that has occasional lapses in defensive effort. One of those could be coming in this tough situational spot as the Liberty are returning home from an emotional win in Vegas over the weekend. The Liberty’s elite offense could drag the Dallas scoring up with them, so I see plenty of reason to believe the Wings will get past this total.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Guardians/NY Yankees First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-115; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on YES
My rule if the Yankees are facing a serviceable lefthanded starter is to find any way possible to fade their offense. New York is 26th in batting average against lefties this season, trailing such offensive powerhouses as Detroit, Oakland, and Colorado, so yeah, it’s ugly. While I don’t want to bet against them at home, I do think those offensive issues create a slow start here.
Lefty Matthew Boyd is making just his second start in a Cleveland uniform, but he has the stuff necessary to stymie the Yankees early on tonight. I also think the Guardians struggle against Luis Gil who has gotten back on track at home. Gil owns a 2.90 ERA and .167 opponent on-base average at Yankee Stadium, and has only allowed 2 total runs in his past 3 home starts. This matchup has a playoff feel with AL seeding implications, and I think that also helps keep the bats quiet early in this game.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +97.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
