Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins ML (-115; Odds via BetMGM): 6:40 PM CT on Bally Sports North
The Twins have not done well in this stretch of interleague games, but I think they get right tonight. With Bailey Ober on the mound they always have a good chance at home, as they’ve won 5 straight at Target Field when the big righty starts. Ober has a 2.78 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and .197 opponent on-base average at home, which should help shut down a Braves offense that’s been bad on the road and against righties. This patchwork Minnesota lineup will need to get to Max Fried, which isn’t always easy, but the Twins at home against lefties has been the situation to back them all season. So I’ll take the Twins at this short price in an advantageous spot.
MLB (0.75 Unit) KC Royals/Cleveland Guardians Game 2 Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports GL
Both of these starting pitchers have had their share of struggles this season, and I think it shows up tonight to create plenty of runs. The Royals tend to get into slugfests when Alec Marsh starts on the road, with his past 5 road starts going over this total and averaging 10.0 runs per game.
Meanwhile, Logan Allen for Cleveland has been a gas can at home with a 6.05 ERA. That has led to his home starts going 8-0 over this total with 12.5 runs on average. These offense have elite talent, the bullpens might be used up in the first game of the doubleheader today, and I think we see an easy over on this moderate total.
MLB (0.75 Unit) San Diego Padres/St Louis Cardinals Over 9 (-115; Odds via Caesars): 6:45 PM CT on SDPA
Two very good offenses take on two starting pitchers with plenty of problems here, in a game where hitting conditions should be close to ideal. It’s a hot and humid day in St Louis, which should help the ball jump, and that’s bad news for Randy Vasquez and Kyle Gibson.
Any time I see Vasquez starting for the Padres on the road I expect another blow-up game, as he owns a 6.08 ERA and .343 opponent on-base average away from home. A Cardinals offense that is much better at home and against righties like Vasquez should be able to take advantage today.
But the Padres should also jump all over Gibson here, as the Cardinal righty has a 4.62 ERA and .306 opponent on-base average at home. San Diego has the best batting average in baseball for road games and they crush righties, so Gibson, who has seen his past 8 home starts go 6-1-1 over this total, should see another over cash tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +95.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
