Locks
NFL (0.75 Unit) Devon Achane Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN
I’m not taking a side in this game, but I do see Devon Achane continuing his resurgence now that Tua Tagovailoa is back under center. The season fell apart for Miami and specifically Achane when his quarterback was out for a four-game stretch, but Tua coming back has worked wonders for the Dolphins running back.
Achane has gone over this total in three straight, averaging 6.4 yards per carry in the process, and having a functional passing game is keeping running lanes open for him. I think that continues here against a Rams team ranked 25th in rushing yards allowed and 28th in rush defense EPA/play. On a fast track in SoFi Stadium, look for the speedy Achane to have another solid day carrying the football.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) McNeese St/Alabama Over 166.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on SEC Network
This game should be a three-point contest with plenty of pace, so I just have to look to the over here. Alabama is always going to be firing away from deep, but tonight they should be in for some significant positive regression in that area. The Tide shot just 19.4% from three in their last game, which still managed to get over this total, so a bounce back there will see them likely return to triple-digit scoring.
McNeese won’t be able to keep up but they’ll be able to contribute themselves, as Will Wade is never shy about getting into a track meet or having his team launch three’s. Alabama will want to tune their game up as best they can before a big clash with Purdue on Friday, so look for them to show no mercy in one of their typical points fests.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Purdue First Half Team Total Over 38.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on BTN
I’m still stinging from Purdue not getting to their first half team total on Friday night, but I’m not backing down either. The Boilermakers had 21 points on the board after 7 minutes in that game and then just went inexplicably ice cold, so I’m treating that as an outlier event. I think they have a very favorable matchup here against a Yale defense that was exposed in their last game, where the Bulldogs gave up 91 to a bad UIC team.
Purdue should overwhelm them with size, as Yale is a small team whose only player over 6’6” has been a complete non-factor this season. Purdue should get easy buckets on the inside with their trio of excellent post players, and they should take better care of the ball as well. Once again this first half total is shaded the wrong way for how Purdue typically plays, and I’m not scared away from taking advantage of value in the number.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Chattanooga @ Austin Peay +3.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Chattanooga might get their first win of the season here but I think it will be close, and I’d rather be catching more than a possession with the home dog. The Mocs have not looked good yet this year, getting blown out by USC and St Mary’s in games where they obviously miss the size they’ve had in previous seasons.
That might not matter as much today against Austin Peay, but do-it-all guard LJ Thomas will still be a handful. What this really boils down to for me is how the Governors went to a power conference school and won, beating Butler in a true road game. Chattanooga was not competitive in their losses out west, and with metrics sites making this a 2-point margin, I’ll take it with the feisty home dog tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +71.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
