Locks
NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins -1.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS
Miami simply doesn’t lose these games, and they can’t afford to start now. The Dolphins are surprisingly not out of the playoff picture whatsoever, but their margin for error is as thin as it gets so they need to take advantage of a bad team coming to town. Fortunately for the Fish, they’ve dominated this series lately, going 8-0 ATS in the past 8 meetings with the Patriots.
It’s common for Miami to beat up on bad teams in games they’re supposed to win, as Tua himself is 14-1 straight up when favored by 6 or more points. So getting this number down to essentially asking the Dolphins to win is where I want to get involved.
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers +0.5: 3:25 PM CT on FOX
I’d say it’s pretty likely that Green Bay covers the true full-game number here, but I’d rather not take too many chances with an awkward spread. I like erasing significant line moves such as the one we saw with this game after Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa were announced out, which is what this tease does and more. The NFL is funky, but I can’t see it being funky enough that Brandon Allen goes into Green Bay and beats a Packer team out for revenge from the playoffs. Quarterback play and especially backup quarterback play has been too poor in recent years for me to buy that possibility, so I like the Pack to get this win.
NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)
Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 @ Carolina Panthers: 12:00 PM CT on CBS
The Chiefs off their first loss of the season cannot be in a good mood here, and the lowly Panthers are not going to give them much of a challenge. Just looking at this holistically, the Chiefs are playing for the number one seed while Carolina is playing for the number one pick, so this should not be a competitive football game. Even though double digit favorites are 5-0 ATS this season, that’s a lot of points to lay on the road so I’m more comfortable knocking this down under a relatively key number.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders -3.5: 12:00 PM CT on FOX
Again, there’s a reasonable argument to be made that Dallas won’t even sniff the full-game spread today with how bad Cooper Rush and this entire team have looked. This is not a game I expect to be competitive either, as it rarely is when Dallas and Washington get together. The past 10 meetings have seen 9 games decided by a double digit margin, which is usually Dallas crushing a bad Commanders squad. I think it’s time for some payback with the shoe on the other foot now, plus Mike McCarthy is 0-12 straight up in his career as an underdog of more than a touchdown, so 3.5 feels like a bargain.
Detroit Lions -0.5 @ Indianapolis Colts: 12:00 PM CT on FOX
So the Lions are 3-0 against the AFC South this season with a couple of casual wins by 46 and 38 points, but the Colts might give them a challenge today? I don’t buy it, and think Detroit keeps up its insane run of Jared Goff being 16-4 ATS his past 20 road games, including 8-2 when favored. Too much is being made of the Colts’ 1-game winning streak with Anthony Richardson back at the helm, as all they did was beat a cratering Jets team. The Lions are playing like they’re mad at the world, and have the all-around team to beat up on just about anyone, but to be safe I’ll only ask them to keep winning here.
NFL (1 Unit) Kansas City Chiefs First Half Team Total Over 14 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
As I alluded to above, Kansas City is not likely to be coming into this game happy, and if we get an angry Chiefs team they’ll maul the poor Panthers here early. It’s been a while since I’ve been able to play this angle against Carolina due to their bye and an awful matchup against the Giants in Germany, but the Chiefs against a team allowing 18.8 first half points per game is too good to pass up. Kansas City should be throwing early to set up the run late against a bottom-3 defense by any and all measures, so this could get out of hand by halftime.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Las Vegas Raiders Team Total Under 17.5 (-115; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on CBS
The Broncos have struggled with the Raiders until this season’s win back in Week 5, but they still haven’t beaten them on the road since 2015 when Peyton Manning was their quarterback. So I’m not in a rush to lay a sizable number with Denver here, but I am looking for a way to fade Vegas and this feels like it. The Raiders have no ability to run the ball, so they’ll be forced into a game script where they throw it a lot against the league’s 2nd-best pass defense by EPA per play. That is not a recipe for success, so a team that only averages 18.7 PPG should get stymied by arguably the league’s best overall defense.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Bo Nix Over 221.5 Passing Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Nix is on the rise, getting better and more comfortable in this offense every week. He’s 7th out of 36 qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE the past month, and sits behind an offensive line that leads the league in pass-block win rate. That negates a strong Raiders pass rush and allows him to pick apart a secondary that’s 27th in EPA per play against the pass and 26th in opponent completion percentage. Nix should get whatever he wants today and continue his ascent.
NFL (1 Unit) Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 @ LA Rams (-120; Odds via Fanduel): 7:20 PM CT on NBC
Maybe it’s because of the Lions being so good, but something seems to be overshadowing this fairly dominant 6-game winning streak from Philadelphia. I think that partly explains the shorter number here, since I see the Eagles as the far superior team in this matchup. Despite the big names on offense, it’s the Philly defense making a huge difference in my opinion as their secondary has finally been fixed.
They’ll need it tonight against a good passing attack from the Rams, but I think the Eagles are up to the task. I also don’t see the Rams being able to stop this balanced Eagles offense that should continue to dominate on the ground. It’s also just a tough spot for LA as the schedule makers did them no favors, sending them as far across the country as possible on a short week and then coming back for this game. It could very well be a trap at this short number with how the NFL is, but Philly is my favorite pick of the week.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Saquon Barkley Over 112.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
He’s just too good and seems to be getting stronger as the season progresses. Barkley has gone over this total in 8 of 10 games this season, and now faces a below-average defense in a primetime game. I think he goes off and carries Philly to their win and cover.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): AJ Brown Over 87.5 Receiving Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Speaking of being just too good, Brown is the true catalyst of the Eagles offense. Philly is averaging 30.0 PPG when he plays compared to 17.3 when he doesn’t, and he should feast on a weak LA secondary here. With Devonta Smith set to miss this game, Brown will have a massive workload and find his way over this number.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +69.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
