“I’m disappointed that we let it get to 17,” Cheryl Reeve said postgame after losing 80-66 to the New York Liberty in Game 2. “I’m more disappointed in that. I’m more than disappointed; I’m pissed that that happened again.”
The Minnesota Lynx’s loss followed an eerily similar pattern to their victory in Game 1, in which they prevailed 95-93. The Liberty built a large lead in the first, but the Lynx chipped away, making it close in the second half. Eventually, they cut the lead to two points after Courtney Williams’ layup with 3:40 to go in the fourth quarter.
However, in Sunday’s matinee game, the Liberty ran away with the game after it got close. They scored the last 12 points of the game and held the Lynx scoreless for the final 3:40 of the game. With the series tied 1-1, Minnesota heads home for Game 3, but they have several positives and negatives to take from the first two games.
Offensively, the Lynx have been playing Lynx basketball. They are shooting 48.1% from the field, significantly better than their regular season average (44.8%). Their 35.7% from three is lower than their 38.0% season average, and they are shooting four fewer threes per game during the playoffs. Combined with their free throw percentages, these have given them a 57.2% true shooting. That’s slightly better than the 55.3% percent they shot in the regular season. That means the Lynx are shooting like they did during the season over the first two games.
They also have four starters averaging double digits in scoring, with Williams leading the way with 19 points per game. They also had four starters scoring in double figures during the regular season. Kayla McBride is scoring exactly her season average at 15, and Smith is up 1.4 points, while Napheesa Collier has seen hers drop from 20.4 to 18.5. The main difference is that Williams has seen her scoring per game rise from 11.1 to 19.0. As a result, the starting five averages up to 70.5 compared to 66.2 per game in the regular season.
However, the volume of turnovers the Lynx are committing has slightly outweighed the consistency of their scoring. Minnesota averages 16.0 turnovers per game, 2.6 times higher than their regular season average. The extra turnovers have caused their assist-to-turnover ratio to plummet from 1.62 in the regular season to just 1.25. Their TOV%, which measures the number of possessions that end in a turnover, has also risen to 20%. That means one in every five Lynx possessions ends in a turnover. The turnovers have caused Minnesota’s offensive rating to fall from 102.8 to 100.6.
The Lynx also has some positives to take away defensively. The Liberty are shooting just 41.7% from the field, down from 44.8%, and 28.5% from three, down from 34.9% during the season. New York has also committed 16.5 turnovers per game, up from 13.8 during the season. Minnesota is giving the top-ranked regular-season offense a tough matchup despite the star power the Liberty possesses offensively. Interestingly, Lynx has seen its offensive rating rise from 107.0 to 108.1 in the Finals.
The rise can be attributed almost solely to the Lynx’s biggest problem in this series, offensive rebounding. The Liberty have a 44% offensive rebound rate in the two games, meaning that for nearly every other shot they miss, they get the offensive rebound and have another chance at scoring. New York has grabbed 30 offensive rebounds in the series, outrebounding the Lynx 78-59. The rebounding disparity has led to the Liberty scoring 16.5 points per game this series with second-chance points.
As a result, the Lynx are only getting 42.1% of the total rebounds in this series, down 6.2% from their regular season average of 48.3%. Minnesota is still holding the Liberty’s shooting and forcing turnovers despite giving up such a high rate of rebounds, which helped them steal home-court away from New York in the first two games. Still, they must find a way to slow the Liberty down on the offensive glass to win the championship.
In Game 1, the Lynx found success rebounding with Collier at the center position in the fourth quarter. The Liberty only outrebounded Minnesota 10-9 in the final frame of Game 1. Reeve attempted to return to this in the fourth quarter of Game 2. However, the results were vastly different. New York outrebounded the Lynx 8-5, including 3 offensive rebounds.
With the Lynx heading home to the Target Center, a pissed Reeve will have plenty of time to address Minnesota’s pitfalls. The four-time coach of the year has to find a way for her team to slow down on the turnovers and pick up on the rebounding for Wednesday night’s Game 3.
Still, the Lynx did what they needed to do in NYC. They stole a game and have an opportunity to close the series out on their home court and win a fifth banner in front of a packed Target Center crowd.
