One week into training camp, the buzz around Minnesota Vikings’ first-round quarterback J.J. McCarthy is growing. Although he is working with the second-team offense, spectators like Skor North’s Judd Zulgad have said that McCarthy looks “more confident and comfortable” than veteran Sam Darnold.
Like McCarthy, Darnold was a first-round draft pick in 2018. However, he failed to meet expectations with the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers. After spending time with the San Francisco 49ers in 2023, the Vikings believed he could flourish in their system and allow a young quarterback to sit on the bench without feeling the pressure to start.
O’Connell said that McCarthy will begin to get some reps with the first-team offense. If McCarthy continues to impress and outperform Darnold with the starters, fans will be clamoring for the rookie. But is that in the best long-term interest of the organization and McCarthy?
Kevin O’Connell doesn’t want to put McCarthy under center before he is ready. O’Connell was on Washington’s staff in 2019 when they drafted Dwayne Haskins with their first-round selection. Everyone appeared on board with a structured plan to get Haskins up to speed on playing quarterback in the NFL before inserting him into the starting lineup. However, Washington named Haskins the starter halfway through his rookie season after it fired head coach Jay Gruden and deviated from their plan.
Washington’s botched development of Haskins influenced O’Connell’s decision to make McCarthy meet certain benchmarks before he sees the field. However, it’s easier for Minnesota’s coaching staff to have conviction in the offseason when the head coach can control the environment around the team. But what happens when it’s Week 7 at U.S. Bank Stadium, Darnold throws another interception, and the crowd grows uneasy?
The Vikings may change quarterbacks at that point, but they wouldn’t go to the player fans would want. If Minnesota keeps Nick Mullens, it would likely be him, not McCarthy, who replaces Darnold. Mullens started three games for the Vikings in 2023, throwing for over 300 yards in each start. He received a lot of criticism for mindless turnovers, but Mullens knows the playbook better than Darnold and McCarthy.
Minnesota’s decision to start Darnold would resemble what the Vikings did in 1999. When Randall Cunningham struggled en route to a 2-4 start to the season, Minnesota replaced him with veteran quarterback Jeff George, not rookie Daunte Culpepper. George led the Vikings to the playoffs as Culpepper continued to sit on the bench. Culpepper took over the following season, leading Minnesota to the NFC Championship.
Mullens likely wouldn’t be able to hold down the job for the remainder of the year due to his propensity to turn the ball over at payday-loan-level rates. However, if he can hold the spot down through at least Week 10, that’d be ideal for the Vikings and McCarthy. Why is Week 10 important? That’s when they’ve been through the most challenging part of the schedule. They play the Tennessee Titans in Week 11, a far less hostile environment than Lambeau Field. Getting the first start on the road also could help temper in-stadium excitement for a rookie who will be full of nerves.
There’s also the reality that football is a violent sport and that injuries happen. Even if Darnold did play well, could he hold up for a 17-game season? He missed games in each of his first four seasons as a starter. Mullens suffered a back injury in camp last year, ultimately leading to the Vikings trading for Josh Dobbs when Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles. Cousins is an anomaly in that he never missed a game due to injury in his career before that.
Perhaps O’Connell is scarred not only by the mishandling of Haskins but also by his own playing career. A star quarterback at San Diego State, the New England Patriots took O’Connell in the third round of the 2008 draft. O’Connell’s career never got off the ground as he bounced around six teams in five years before retiring in 2012. He mentions this when discussing his “quarterback journey” and how that experience helped him in his post-playing career as a position coach and coordinator. O’Connell knows how things can go south for a young quarterback because he experienced it firsthand.
We may never know what milestones McCarthy needs to pass to elevate himself up the depth chart. However, if the 2023 Vikings showed us anything, football is unpredictable. Because of that, Minnesota could accelerate even a perfect plan to insert McCarthy into the starting lineup. It may not be ideal for O’Connell and the Vikings, but it will be hard to fend off McCarthy forever if he continues to impress.
