The 2024 Minnesota Vikings’ defense has been a rollercoaster that started at the top of the hill. Through five weeks, it was among the best in the league, top-five in nearly every meaningful metric. Over the following two weeks, it was dead last in EPA/play allowed.
However, the unit got the bounce-back performance it needed in Week 9 against the Indianapolis Colts. It was the unit’s third-best outing of the season by EPA/play allowed, only behind their games against the two New York teams. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco had his worst outing of the season.
It all started with stopping Jonathan Taylor and the Colts’ rushing attack. The Vikings defense did just that.
Unlike in many Minnesota victories this season, the defense didn’t nix the opposing running game by getting out to an early lead, forcing them to throw. The Vikings trailed at halftime and still wouldn’t allow Indy to get anything going on the ground.
Contrary to popular assumption, Brian Flores deploys most of his blitzes to stop the run. Per Cody Alexander of MatchQuarters.com, in Week 9, Flores blitzed over 50% of the time on first down and a whopping 75% on second-and-short. That totaled a “run blitz rate” of 39.6%, right around his season blitz rate of 41%.
The strategy here is to force opposing offenses into precarious third downs on which they need to throw. If offenses can get into a third-and-manageable, play callers have much more flexibility between run and pass calls. Consequently, the Colts only had a 31.6% rushing success rate, well shy of their season success rate of 40%. Taylor is Indianapolis’ foremost weapon. However, the Vikings held him to 48 yards on 13 carries and just one run of over 10 yards. The only other explosive run allowed came on a sweep to receiver Ashton Dulin.
Consequently, the Vikings often had the advantage on passing downs. Once into these obvious passing downs, Flores will use the illusion of complexity more often than an all-out blitz. He’s often used “sim pressures,” or four-man pressures from unorthodox alignments, i.e., sending an off-ball linebacker on a blitz and replacing him in coverage with a down lineman, to do that.
Dallas Turner, Andrew Van Ginkel, Josh Metellus, and Ivan Pace Jr. are the perfect mix of players to deploy this way. Turner and Van Ginkel are nominal edge rushers with the athleticism and savvy to drop into coverage without sacrificing much. Pace is an off-ball linebacker at his best when attacking downhill or blitzing. And Metellus is a queen on Flores’ chess board who he can deploy anywhere on the defense.
Flores is muddying the quarterback’s post-snap reads and messing with the opposition’s pass-protection rules. It’s extremely helpful to this group that, after the disguise wears off, is pretty standard with its coverages. The Vikings ran middle-of-the-field-closed or “two-high” coverages 62.8% of the time in Week 9, meaning Cover 2 (25.6%), quarters (31%) or Cover 6 (6.2%). Flores will call these coverages behind five-man pressures as often as he does behind four-man rushes.
It can be the best of both worlds regarding manufacturing pressure while protecting against the deep pass. Flores has not called nearly as much Cover 0 (just 4.5% in Week 9) this season as he did with the Miami Dolphins or last season with the Vikings. Some of that has to do with cornerback personnel, but it also shows his evolution as a playcaller.
Flores may crank up the aggressiveness against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that will most likely be without its franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence. He pass-blitzed only 33% of the time against the grizzled veteran Flacco, who has seen almost everything over his 17 seasons.
However, Mac Jones will likely start on Sunday, and Flores may try to pull some more levers to force the young QB into mistakes. He blitzed over 50% of the time against second-year QB C.J. Stroud to excellent results. Blake Cashman is likely to return to action on Sunday, which may further embolden Flores, given the former Golden Gophers’ coverage ability. Pace did an admirable job donning the green dot for the three weeks Cashman missed, but the Vikings meaningfully felt Cashman’s absence.
Jacksonville’s rushing attack has been solid this season, especially since they started giving more opportunities to Tank Bigsby a few weeks ago. On the season, the group is 13th in rushing success rate and 12th in EPA/rush.
Minnesota will need another strong performance against the run this week to ensure a victory. While many Vikings fans have been having Cooper Rush flashbacks for two straight weeks, this is not Ed Donatell’s defense. Flores feasts on young QBs by taking the fight to the offense and being deceptive as all get out. Jacksonville’s offensive line is decimated. The Vikings took one of them, and they are down to their third left guard and backup center, while the remaining starters were uninspiring.
Granted, the same was said about the Rams’ O-line, and that didn’t turn out well. However, Mac Jones is no Matt Stafford. As much as I like Brian Thomas Jr., he’s not Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp, and Doug Pederson is certainly no Sean McVay. If this game turns out as lopsided as it looks on paper, the Vikings may get another head coach fired this week.
