Another week, another convincing Minnesota Vikings win driven by a dominant defensive performance. Brian Flores’ defense has only allowed 10 points per game, good for second in the league behind only the Pittsburgh Steelers. B-Flo’s plan against the pass has been extremely compelling and has even drawn national media attention.
How well his defense has combated the run throughout the season hasn’t gotten enough shine. The Vikings held the Houston Texans to 38 rushing yards in Week 3, keeping C.J. Stroud and the offense behind the sticks all game. Fighting an uphill battle, they were forced to throw the ball and contend with the cacophony of Flores’ pre-snap disguises.
Minnesota’s run defense has been fantastic, and the numbers back it up. Flores’ group ranks third in EPA/rush, fourth in stuff rate, second in 10-plus-yard runs allowed (4), and third in yards per rush.
It all starts up front with first-time captain Harrison Phillips. The nose tackle has been the unsung hero of the unit since the Vikings signed him in 2022. He absorbs double teams, holds his ground, stacks blocks, and sheds them at the perfect time to knife into run gaps. In addition, players like Jonathan Bullard, Jerry Tillery, and Taki Taimani have played well above their billing against the run. I’ve waxed poetic about the edge group and the linebackers against the pass. Still, Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Dallas Turner, who will be active against the Green Bay Packers, have set the edge consistently against the run this season.
Dismantling Houston
“Make no mistake, it was not close” – Kevin O’Connell
The Vikings defense forced Stroud’s first interception since Week 11 of last season when Phillips batted his pass into the arms of Kamu Grugier-Hill — and then they picked him off again. Flores consistently exploited Houston’s protection rules by dropping the edge from the side to which the offensive line slid its protection and using stunts to generate advantages in four or five-man pressures.
Flores has guided young quarterbacks to the slaughter dating back to his final season in New England, punctuated by a suffocating performance against Jared Goff’s Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl. As anomalous as Stroud’s rookie season was, he also succumbed to the Leviathan.
Bobby Slowik’s wide-zone running game offered no reprieve for the second-year quarterback. On multiple occasions, the Vikings’ front slammed gaps shut one by one as Houston running backs stretched to the outside. Unselfishly, the front occupies blockers and spills runs to the outside, which is a quiet strength of the defense: open-field tacklers. Per PFF, the Vikings are 16th in missed tackles with 27; however, the entire defense rallies to the football, which mutes most of them.
After the Vikings scored two first-quarter touchdowns, Houston had to play catch-up. The Texans eventually pulled Stroud for Davis Mills as the game became a blowout. However, during the competitive portion of the game, he was forced to drop back 75% of the time. As much as that is a testament to the Minnesota offense, the defense never allowed Houston to establish balance through the run game. That was the biggest key to victory on that side of the ball.
Different Ballgame
This Sunday, the Green Bay offense will have all its key weapons in the running game. Whether it’s Malik Willis or Jordan Love under center, Matt LaFleur’s offense will be a massive test. Lafleur’s ability to roll with the punches following Love’s Week 1 injury against Philly has been nothing short of spectacular.
In the following matchup, he weaponized the run game to a degree rarely seen in the NFL. Josh Jacobs is a workhorse running back who carried the ball 32 times for 151 yards, four different players logged a 10-plus-yard run, and only one of them was a running back. Designed runs to Willis, Bo Melton, and Jayden Reed kept the Indianapolis Colts guessing all game. Green Bay finished the game with 261 rushing yards on 53 (!) carries.
In Week 3, Lafleur came out with deceptive wrinkles that set Willis up for success as a passer. Despite only throwing the ball five more times (19) than he did in Week 2, he had some spectacular downfield passes.
The Packers come into this game having thrown the ball less than 40% of the time. Still, they are third in yards per pass and sixth in yards after catch over expected, per Next Gen Stats. Conversely, despite being 26th in pass yards allowed, Minnesota’s defense is seventh in pass yards allowed per play — another figure that highlights the unit’s ability to tackle in the open field. I’m confident that Flores and the Vikings can limit explosive passes this week, but they will need to respect Green Bay’s run game as much, if not more, than San Francisco’s.
Green Bay’s rushing offense is just 20th in success rate but second in rush yards per play. That’s mainly due to the explosive plays Lafleur’s group has generated on the ground. The Packers are tied for first with the Baltimore Ravens with 19 explosive runs through three games. The formations from which they run the football make this rushing attack difficult.
The Packers have only run against stacked boxes 13.4% of the time. They like to spread out the defense and make them cover every blade of grass. They are also sixth in play-action rate and generate a lot of their space horizontally. That will stress the Vikings linebackers to stay disciplined. LaFleur’s offense utilizes plenty of pre- and post-snap eye candy to pull defenders away from the actual play.
I’ll be curious to see how Flores lines up his fronts to combat this attack. The Vikings should hold up well against standard run concepts like zone, power, and duo. However, the real test will come against trick plays. Minnesota will need to continue to tackle in the open field at a high level if they want to avoid being gouged by LaFleur’s lethal run game on Sunday.
