Minnesota Vikings fans are half a season into the Sam Darnold experience and boy, has it been … an experience.
Darnold’s physical talent has never been in question, but his decision-making and excitability have led to some high peaks and deep valleys throughout his career. From his time as a starter with the moribund New York Jets to his stints with the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers (as a backup), he has never been in a situation as ideal as his current one in Minnesota. Unimpeded by the pressure to play first-round pick J.J. McCarthy thanks to his preseason injury, head coach and offensive playcaller Kevin O’Connell has empowered Darnold and imbued him with confidence.
Beginning the season flanked by two of the best tackles in the league and throwing to the best receiver in the NFL, Darnold enjoyed the best four-game stretch of his career. His success this season is vindicating for those who believed Minnesota’s offensive infrastructure was an ideal environment for a rookie quarterback to begin his career. For the same reasons, it’s been epiphanic for Darnold. As his maturity has improved, and so has his situation. Now he’s looking like a real starting quarterback.
To this point in the season, he is second in the NFL in completion rate over expected, and 14th in EPA per dropback.
For all of the good decisions he has made this season, when he makes poor ones, they are often egregious. Darnold’s interceptions can be mind-numbing. His late-down sacks are drive-derailing. Sometimes he seems to forget that it’s not all on him. There’s nothing wrong with the occasional check down or throwaway. Among qualified starters (at least five full games) this season, he is seventh in deep-pass percentage at 11.2%. He is also tied for fourth in air yards per attempt.
Justin Jefferson another huge driving force of Sam Darnold’s success and the offense as a whole. He’s third in the league in receiving yards per game and is the ultimate No. 1 option. He also leads the league in 20-plus-yard receptions. Kevin O’Connell does a great job to get Jefferson some open looks schematically, even when the offense isn’t at full strength.
A reporter asked Jefferson about the open space he occasionally sees. He credited KOC, saying, “The openings just come from the defense being spread out with the concepts and different plays we’re running.”
However, Jefferson adds just as much value when he doesn’t get the ball. While throwing the ball to the best receiver in football is rarely a bad idea, there are many times when his gravity opens up better options. The offense has some room to grow in these instances.
Many of Darnold’s best and worst throws come when he tries to make tight-window throws to Jefferson. On his second interception in the Indianapolis Colts game, Jordan Addison broke wide open on a deep post against a single-high coverage. Jefferson’s dig route wrapped behind him. The middle-field safety, in most cases, would carry Addison’s vertical route as Addison crossed his face. Instead, he squatted on Jefferson’s in-breaker that was already well-covered. Sam needs to more frequently anticipate the attention that Jefferson commands.
That will be a shorter task now that tight end T.J. Hockenson is back in the lineup. While Josh Oliver and Johnny Mundt were serviceable in the passing game to this point in the season, neither has the same juice as Hockenson.
Hock only played about half of the offensive snaps in his first game back from his torn ACL/MCL injury. However, this will truly be a pick-your-poison offense once he is back into the swing of things. The threat of Hockenson over the middle will help to tie down hook zone defenders so Darnold can get it over them to JJ or Addison. So long as Darnold is disciplined in his decision-making, defenses will be hard-pressed to win downs.
“He’s going to draw attention just like me,” said Jefferson with a giddy smile as he spoke of T.J.’s return to the lineup.
Hockenson adds more of a vertical threat from the in-line tight end position than Mundt or Oliver could provide, but his presence also opens O’Connell’s playbook all the way back up. He likes to align T.J. as part of a three-receiver bunch including Jefferson. That can stress the coverage to that side of the field with switch releases and layered concepts. When Hockenson and Jefferson are stacked or both included in a bunch, it is easy for O’Connell to get zone defenders in conflict.
“Everybody’s excited to have him back out there,” O’Connell said when asked about Hockenson’s return. “Huge part of our system and offense and organization to have 87 back out there.”
Hockenson’s snaps will also weaponize the running game a bit more. He’s not the blocker that Oliver is; few tight ends are. Still, his threat as a chip-and-release player on play action can make backside edge players less decisive with their pursuit.
We may see more runs to the strong side of the formation when Hockenson is the lone tight end in 11 personnel so he is not isolated on an edge player in duo. Still, he can also hold his own in certain situations.
Aaron Jones has naturally been a huge part of the offense as both a runner and a pass catcher, but Minnesota added more juice to the running back room ahead of the deadline. Ty Chandler has shown some flashes at times but he seems to have been supplanted by the recently acquired familiar face Cam Akers. His six carries for 46 yards including three 10-plus yard runs on Sunday night galvanized the offense on a night in which Aaron Jones averaged just 3.1 yards per carry.
The injection of life Jones offers may have come at the perfect time for this offense. Minnesota’s run game was one of the very best in the league through its first several games, but those numbers have tailed off a bit. After being top five in EPA and success rate early on, they are now 15th in success rate (41.5%), 15th in EPA/rush, 17th in stuff rate (16.1%), and 19th in rush yards over expected per attempt.
On the whole this season, it’s far from a bad rushing attack. However if Akers can spell Jones the way he did in Week 9 and keep him fresh, the unit could climb the ranks again. Darrisaw’s loss is a difficult thing to recover from but Cam Robinson is a solid left tackle.
Once he gets a bit more familiar with Minnesota’s zone-blocking principles and develops a chemistry with Blake Brandel to his right, the run game will pick back up. He needs to feel out his timing on when to release on double teams and climb to the second level.
In Week 9 against a strong defensive tackle duo and swarming linebackers, Minnesota’s rushing success rate was up to 46.9%. That’s a good sign for a unit with more moving parts than expected.
With Akers, Robinson, and Hockenson acclimated, this is an offense well-equipped to play complimentary football. Play action will be more deceptive and effective with Hockenson as a part of the play. When the Vikings go to 12-personnel they’ll still be just as much of a threat in the pass game as they are in the run game, when you swap out Mundt for Hockenson.
O’Connell will have the entire playbook at his disposal and the talent to leverage it. With help from O’Connell, Wes Phillips and his cohorts on offense, Sam Darnold can successfully toe the line between aggressive and over-aggressive, this could be the best offense in the league.
