Dread it, try to run on it, doesn’t matter — Brian Flores’ defense arrives all the same. Don’t take the Green Bay Packers’ second-half explosiveness last week as a sign of Flores faltering. Neither team’s playcalling was conventional once Minnesota jumped out to a 28-point lead. The Packers were going for it on fourth-and-longs, the Vikings were conservative on fourth-and-shorts. Much of Green Bay’s success came when they went to tempo offense. It worked because it didn’t allow Flores to make as many substitutions, and dissuaded the defense from employing its usual pre-snap mind games. The players may have gotten a little complacent and coverages were more vanilla.
Flores took most of the blame for this, saying, “You know, I’ve certainly looked at myself and said, ‘Hey, I could have done a better job putting them in better, you know, positions.’ And, you know, nobody’s harder on themselves than I am.”
What’s more applicable to the next matchup with the New York Jets in London is what the defense did over the competitive portion of the game, but we will also take a look at some examples of why it wasn’t as effective late in the game.
Early on, the Vikings’ run defense was what it has been all season long: suffocating. Six of the Packers’ first eight runs went for three yards or less. This forced Green Bay into a lot of obvious passing downs, which is exactly what every defense wants. The Vikings have allowed the second fewest (6) 10-plus yard runs, rank third in EPA per rush, and are allowing just 0.28 yards before contact per attempt which ranks second in the league. Teams simply cannot stay ahead of the sticks against this unit.
Once opponents are forced into obvious pass situations, that’s when the real magic happens. Box-score watchers may scoff at the amount of passing yardage the group has given up through four games, but the advanced numbers tell a much different story. Cumulative numbers can be very misleading, especially considering how often teams find themselves needing to pass the ball. Whether they are trailing early and need to get back in the game or they find themselves in second- or third-and-long, teams are throwing the ball against the Vikings defense at an alarming rate. The Vikings have seen 44 pass attempts per game through the first four games; they’re on pace to break the NFL record for pass attempts faced. A jarring 71% of opponents’ offensive plays have come through the air. As a result, the Vikings have allowed the most passing yards per game.
All of that said, the Vikings’ pass defense has been strong on a down-to-down basis. The unit is seventh in EPA per pass, eighth in pressure rate, and first in sacks. Flores will still mix in some drop-eight coverages with only three pass-rushers, but even those have more nuance to them than they did last year because of how versatile the personnel has become. He also hasn’t had to send nearly as many six- or seven-man pressures this season. When this defense is at its best this year, it aligns in a single-high safety shell before rotating into some two-high structure behind a five-man pressure. This has predominantly been Tampa 2, Quarters, or Palms. The experience and savvy of outside corners Shaq Griffin and Stephon Gilmore has allowed Flores to weaponize these coverages consistently.
The Jets’ offense is coming off of a dismal nine-point performance against the Denver Broncos. The Jets rank 27th in yards per run, 23rd in EPA/rush, and 23rd in success rate. With Aaron Rodgers under center, they have abandoned the run game pretty early when they get behind. This should play right into Flores’ hands. I expect the Vikings to stymie the Jets’ rushing attack early and allow the real chess match to commence. The Jets’ offensive line has had its issues early on this season, and Flores will make them feel the absence of right tackle Morgan Moses. Penn State rookie Olu Fashanu will get the start and will likely be seen as a pressure point for this defensive staff to push.
While Rodgers has lost some mobility, he still knows how to relocate and extend plays and remains a supreme processor and accurate passer. Conditions were not ideal against Denver, and we may see some rain in London on Sunday as well, but Rodgers had a fantastic game in Week 3 versus the New England Patriots. No one calls defense quite like Flores right now, but New England does some similar things. Rodgers had great success in this game assessing the coverages Jerod Mayo’s team deployed. He was effective at buying time and forcing defensive backs to cover long enough for his receivers to find soft spots. This is exactly what hurt Minnesota in the second half in Green Bay, so the pressure will need to get home on Sunday. If Rodgers is able to escape the tackle box cleanly, there are few quarterbacks in the history of the game better at leading receivers into space off-schedule.
The Vikings do have a bit more speed at the second level to contend with screens, quick throws to the flat, and throws like these to Tyler Conklin, so hopefully this group can keep Rodgers from getting into a groove. In what will almost certainly be the final meeting between Rodgers and Harrison Smith, two players who have the utmost respect for one another’s football minds, it will come down to whose team makes the last adjustment before the snap.
The defense will need to play 60 minutes of disciplined football to avoid being coaxed into mistakes by Rodgers. No offsides for the free-play king, no showing their hand by biting on his hard counts, and no one breaking contain to allow him to extend plays. Flores’ coverage group has been good this season, but all bets are off when DBs have to cover for four-plus seconds and it turns into backyard football for one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time.
