Suppose you asked analysts this off-season, particularly those who cover football on a national level, how the Minnesota Vikings match up with the Detroit Lions. They’d have told you that the Vikings are outclassed across the board. Now the NFL world has changed its tune a bit, given Minnesota’s hot start. Still, there were lingering questions about how the Vikings would stack up against a team that was one collapse away from a Super Bowl berth last season.
The Vikings answered the bell on Sunday. The game had a playoff atmosphere. It looked like two of the NFL’s best teams going blow for blow for 60 minutes, and it was ultimately a performance on which Minnesota’s players should hang their hats, not their heads.
For the first time this season, Minnesota found themselves trailing by multiple scores. After forcing back-to-back three-and-outs (including a turnover on downs), the Vikings sprinted out to a 10-point lead that they carried into the second quarter. This was familiar territory. However, this team had yet to deal with the Mike Tyson uppercut they took to the chin in the second quarter: 21 consecutive points from Detroit on 19 offensive plays.
It was chunk play after chunk play — 45 yards, 12 yards, 35 yards, 18 yards, and 25 yards — as they rode momentum into halftime. The Lions only faced one third down in the entire second quarter, and it resulted in a touchdown. The Vikings were set to receive the second-half kickoff, but it didn’t look like they’d be able to stop the bleeding.
The Vikings began the second half with perhaps their best drive of the game, going 80 yards on nine plays, driven by their best player. Justin Jefferson racked up 48 yards on four catches, including this drive-capping touchdown grab.
After the Lions responded with their fourth consecutive touchdown drive, the Vikings tightened up for three-straight defensive stops, highlighted by Ivan Pace Jr.’s fumble return touchdown off Josh Metellus’ perfectly timed punch. The team weathered two separate 11-point deficits and found themselves leading 29-28 with a chance to put the game away. Of course, they didn’t. Still, the fact that they did not once lay down or give in to a team that absolutely walloped the Dallas Cowboys by 38 points the preceding week is a testament to Minnesota’s resolve.
The toughest stretch on Minnesota’s 2024 schedule is behind them. Through six games, they are 5-1 with a +61 point differential. They dismantled the AFC South favorite Houston Texans, handily beat a likely playoff team in the Green Bay Packers, and led from start to finish against the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers. There was little to no drop in play quality or intensity against the defending division champs and conference runner-ups.
The next six games on the schedule include tilts in Los Angeles against the (2-4) on Thursday night and at home against the Indianapolis Colts (4-3). After that, they get the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5), then back on the road against the Tennessee Titans (1-5) and Chicago Bears (4-2) before returning to Minnesota for a showdown with the Arizona Cardinals (2-4). The Vikings should be favored in all these games, barring any unforeseen injuries.
In the pre-season, I’d be highly optimistic if you told me the Vikings would be 3-3 coming into this stretch. They must overcome the Lions Hangover that has plagued the rest of Detroit’s opponents this season (no Lions opponent has won its next game). Still, the turnaround of a Thursday night game should allow the team to quickly shake off the feeling of defeat.
While the offense had dull moments, Sam Darnold and his crew kept the team in the game. The offense’s 7.4 yards per play was the best mark of any team in Week 7. They also had a slightly better EPA per play than the Lions in this game.
Kevin O’Connell and Darnold stayed aggressive and were able to hit on enough big plays to keep things interesting. The one interception Darnold threw was a case of being too aggressive. Duped by the rotation of Detroit’s safeties, he failed to detach his eyes from Jordan Addison’s out-breaker and work back across the field to a wide-open Aaron Jones.
Overall, this was not Darnold’s worst game, but it is fair to expect a bounce-back performance from him against a Rams defense that ranks 28th in DVOA on Thursday. Los Angeles’ defense ranks fifth-worst in EPA per play allowed. The odds look even better, considering that T.J. Hockenson will likely be back in action for the Purple.
People laud the Lions for their toughness, and the Vikings played just as tough. Excluding the 45-yard touchdown above, the Vikings held Detroit’s rushing attack to 3.7 yards per carry with only one other “explosive” (10-plus-yard) run. Minnesota held the Lions to just a 29.6% rushing success rate, well shy of their 46.9% success rate on the season. The Vikings pressured Jared Goff on 51.7% of his dropbacks, but he carved up the defense despite that.
Goff had been on a heater this season, and Sunday may have been his best performance. The good news is the Vikings won’t face an offensive line/quarterback/playcaller combination this good until the next time they play Detroit. Luke Braun of Locked on Vikings has harped on the defense’s inability to defend Dagger route concepts in this game, and he’s spot-on. If Ben Johnson exploited this chink in the armor, Sean McVay is sure to try to do the same. Brian Flores only has two days of practice to make an adjustment there, but with 11 weeks to cure what ailed them in this game, the Vikings are still as good a bet as any to win the NFC North.
