The Minnesota Vikings enter the 2024 offseason at a crossroads, primarily because their longtime quarterback, Kirk Cousins, is entering free agency. The Vikings have employed a number of tactics to try to pay other players and field a competitive roster with Cousins under center. That has led to a large projected dead cap hit in 2024 even if Kirk doesn’t play for the team. By contrast, having a quality starting QB on a rookie deal is a huge boon.
The Vikings have three primary options at QB this offseason. They can commit to Cousins long-term and ignore QB in the draft, let him walk and sign a bridge quarterback while hoping to draft a QB in the first round, or sign Cousins for a short period of time and pursue his replacement in the draft. There is a fourth option — trading for a QB from another team — but it’s pretty much impossible to speculate who might be available or what the price would be.
All three options have downsides. If you commit to Cousins, you are running the risk that he won’t be the same player after he injured his Achilles. You also have to recognize that he hasn’t been good enough to get the team over the hump since joining the Vikings in 2018. However, since Minnesota picks 11th in the draft, letting Cousins walk signals that the Vikings are going to be desperate to trade up, potentially increasing the cost to do so. The team would also run the risk of the QB-needy teams in the top three taking all the best prospects, leaving Minnesota out to dry. The third option is by far the most restrictive in terms of cost because you have to pay Cousins while also spending a pick that could become a starter at another position to get a QB to eventually replace him.
For the premise of this article, I’m choosing the third option. I believe this is the path the Vikings should take if they want to meet Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s goal of competitively rebuilding. Cousins will allow them to compete while the rookie QB sits in 2024, and the hope would be for the young QB to take over in 2025. Additionally, I want the Vikings to be able to move up as far as third overall to get their guy, so I will account for that in my salary cap calculation.
This also happens to be the most financially difficult path to take. You not only have to pay market value for Cousins, but you’ve taken away an opportunity to get a low-cost player through the draft. If you want to take one of the other paths, I totally understand. To accommodate that, I structured Cousins‘ contract in a way that it will cost the Vikings more money to keep in 2024 than it would to let him walk. I did the same for Danielle Hunter. That means that if you would prefer to move on from those players, Minnesota will remain under the cap.
Setting parameters
For this exercise, I wanted to create a roster containing 53 players who I felt could build a strong contender in the NFC next year. To do so, I didn’t want to rely on projecting a draft pick into a certain spot, so I used only current free agents to fill the team’s needs. I used PFF and Over the Cap contract projections to help come up with salary numbers for players but made modifications where I saw fit. Ultimately, I came up with a 53-man roster that I believe is significantly more talented than the one the Vikings had in 2023, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. You can see the depth chart below.
It’s easy for the Vikings to create more cap space than they currently have, as I discussed here. However, a number of those moves simply push money into 2025. So for this exercise, I wanted to look at the impacts to both the 2024 and 2025 cap space that the Vikings have.
For a starting point, I went to Over the Cap’s Salary Cap Space page and grabbed the “Effective Cap Space” for both 2024 and 2025. The definition of Effective Cap Space is “the cap space a team will have after signing at least 51 players and its projected rookie class to its roster.” This is a really good starting point for building the team. However, that number has a few flaws. First, while the top 51 is what matters for the offseason, to field a 53-man roster teams should really be accounting for 53 players when looking ahead, so I added players at minimum salaries to get up to 53 players in each season.
The minimum salary for 2024 is $795,000 and for 2025 is $840,000. Second, the OTC calculator currently counts Cousins, Danielle Hunter, and Marcus Davenport, as part of that top 51, so the Vikings really only have 50 players under contract. Therefore, I made sure to account for that when adding up to 53 total players. Third, I want to give the Vikings the flexibility to move up to third overall. The difference between third and 11th is approximately $2.8 million in the first year of a rookie deal and $3.5 million for the second year of a rookie deal. Finally, in addition to the 53-man roster, practice squad players count against the salary cap. There are 16 players, and they can earn a maximum of $383,400 in 2024, increasing to $396,000 in 2025.
Given those parameters, I came up with a functional cap space of $8,166,458 for 2024 and $90,313,530 for 2025.
In doing the cap math, I am making another assumption, and that is for every player I add in free agency, I drop a player currently on the roster. That means that I gain back cap space on each player I add. For example, adding a player with a $4,795,000 cap hit would only cost $4,000,000 against the cap if you also cut a player who was scheduled to make $795,000. For the 2024 Vikings, I had enough players that I could put numbers to the savings from each player cut. But I just assumed minimum contract players for the 2025 cap.
There is a final caveat that would save the Vikings money compared to the cap math I did in this piece. In building the roster, I did not include any rookies on the final 53. Each rookie added would subsequently have a player cut, saving money based on whatever that player was getting paid. The Vikings are currently slated to have nine draft picks, so that’s over $7 million in potential savings or even more if they cut players with larger contracts. However, teams always make transactions during the season, so let’s consider the unaccounted for space saved a buffer for in-season moves.
critical extensions and re-signings
Extend Kirk Cousins for two years, $80 million, fully guaranteed
Cap Impact: Costs $11,350,000 in 2024, $28,650,000 in 2025
For this deal, I am giving Cousins a $13 million signing bonus with a $27 million salary in 2024 and a $40 million salary in 2025. Additionally, I will tack an extra void year onto the deal and remove his no-trade clause, with the plan to trade him in the 2025 offseason with the drafted QB taking over.
I recognize that this is a massive caveat to this deal, and it will have major implications for my projection for the 2025 cap if the Vikings aren’t able to come to an agreement on a trade for Cousins or if the QB drafted is a bust. However, that’s the reality in dealing with large QB contracts.
If Cousins is stuck on the team in 2025, the Vikings would have a cap hit of $52,850,000 with this structure, and they’d have to use a bonus conversion to bring that number down and make up for the $24,200,000 difference in cap hit. This deal has to happen before Cousins‘ contract voids or the Vikings will struggle to make a signing work. I’m projecting about the maximum amount of money that the Vikings can pay him.
Due to contract rules, the most they can offer him on an extension is $42.5 million per year. I feel comfortable assuming the ability to trade him because I’m significantly over-projecting his contract compared to other sources. PFF has him projected at two years, $60 million with $37.5 million guaranteed. With that deal, you could cut Cousins in Year 2 and save money compared to my projection. I don’t feel comfortable going that low, though, because speculation is inconsistent. Thus, my strategy was to go for a number on the high end in this projection.
Extend Danielle Hunter for three years, $65 million, with $37.4 million guaranteed
Cap Impact: Costs $8,756,666 in 2024, Costs $13,708,334 in 2025
With only Pat Jones and Andre Carter under contract for 2024, the need to re-sign Hunter is self-evident. Like with Cousins, I gave Hunter a high Year 1 salary ($11,210,000) to ensure the Vikings could execute all of the other moves in this mock without being contingent on signing Hunter. I included a $25 million signing bonus and two void years on this deal to spread out the salary cap hit. The total salary matches PFF’s projection, but the guarantees are slightly less than what PFF projected, with no guaranteed money in the third year of the contract.
Extend Justin Jefferson for five years, $175 million, with $95 million guaranteed
Cap Impact: Saves $11,618,000 in 2024, Costs $8,175,000 in 2025
Extending the best WR in the NFL has been a no-brainer since before last season. Jefferson is under contract for 2024, and this deal is tacked on to the end of it, making it a six-year, $194.743 million deal in its entirety. I gave Jefferson a $35 million signing bonus up front but had to include minimum salaries in 2024 and 2025 to make the cap work. To make up for this, 2026 and 2027 had to have fully guaranteed salaries to get to $95 million total. It’s rare for contracts to have a fully guaranteed fourth year in a deal, but I think we can all agree that JJ is worth it.
Extend Byron Murphy for three years, $45 million, with $26.9 million guaranteed
Cap Impact: Saves $3,555,000 in 2024, Costs $5,690,000 in 2025
The Vikings signed Murphy to a short-term deal, and he easily played well enough in 2023 to earn a longer-term one through 2027. This deal would pay Murphy similarly to players like Carlton Davis and Charvarius Ward, who are fair comparisons. The extension would also give Murphy a $24.6 million signing bonus, which adds $15 million to his current 2024 compensation, and tacks on two void years to help spread that out. His 2024 and 2025 base salaries are the minimum, with $12.7 million in 2026 and $15 million in 2027 non-guaranteed.
Sign Dalton Risner for three years, $15 million, with $6 million guaranteed
Cap Impact: Costs $2,750,000 in 2024, Costs $5,925,000 in 2025
The Vikings need a starting LG for next season, and Risner played well enough. This deal only has a $4.8 million signing bonus and the first-year salary guaranteed. I went significantly below the PFF projection for this deal of $8 million a year, but PFF has been historically higher on Risner than the league has been. They also projected him at $8 million per year last year, and he ended up going into the regular season before signing a cheap deal. I modeled this deal after the one Garrett Bradbury signed last offseason.
Extend Marcus Davenport for one year, $5 million, with $3.8 million guaranteed
Cap Impact: Saves $4,900,000 in 2024, Costs $9,900,000 in 2025
While the Vikings bet and won with Murphy in 2023, they gambled and lost with Davenport. He was disruptive while on the field but predictably missed the majority of the season due to injury. The primary goal of this deal is to delay Davenport’s $6.8 million dead cap charge currently slated to hit in 2024. The deal also has a $3.8 million signing bonus with four void years to minimize the cap hit. If Davenport manages to stay healthy, there is a huge upside to this deal. He would provide a quality, low-cost starter for the team.
Outside free agents
Sign Justin Madubuike for five years, $115 million, with $69 million guaranteed
Cap Impact: Costs $10,325,000 in 2024, Costs $10,370,000 in 2025
Pass-rush help is a huge need for the Vikings, and Madubuike was awesome this past year. He will be 26 for most of 2024, which fits Minnesota’s profile for signings under Adofo-Mensah. One caveat is that he had a huge breakout in 2023, and the Vikings have typically signed FAs who had down years in the previous season.
However, I wanted to go to the top of the market to fill this need, and that meant Madubuike. My projection matches the salary PFF projected but adds one more year and gives slightly more guaranteed money to account for that. For this contract, I gave Madubuike a $46 million signing bonus with minimum salaries in the first two years and guaranteed his salary in the third year of the deal, which is fairly typical for large FA deals. That leaves the Vikings an easy out in 2027 if it doesn’t work out.
Sign L’Jarius Sneed for three years, $52.5 million, with $37.3 million guaranteed
Cap Impact: Costs $8,125,000 in 2024, Costs $8,170,000 in 2025
Sneed would be a slam-dunk answer to Minnesota’s problems at corner outside of Byron Murphy. He’s a physical player who would allow the Vikings to play more man coverage instantly. The CB market in free agency this year has two awesome options at the top with Jaylon Johnson and Sneed, a bunch of older stop-gap options in the middle of the market, and a couple of young reclamation projects at the bottom, so I felt the need to splurge here. This deal matches the projection that PFF has. It also has a $35 million signing bonus, two void years, and guaranteed minimum salaries in the first two years with a $15.2 million salary in 2026. Sneed would carry a dead cap hit of $14 million in 2027.
Sign Jordyn Brooks for three years, $33 million, with $22 million guaranteed
Cap Impact: Costs $4,425,000 in 2024, Costs $7,675,000 in 2025
Brooks fits the profile of a typical Vikings’ FA better than Sneed or Madubuike did. He was a high pick who had injury issues and a disappointing final season. I view LB, particularly one who can cover, as an underrated need for this Vikings team. At 240 lbs. and with nearly 33″ arms, Brooks has the size and length to take on blocks directly but is a great athlete and has natural coverage instinct.
He should be able to let Ivan Pace play to his strengths as a blitzer while Brooks is covering, while still having the size to take on the run and blitz. My deal matches PFF’s salary projection, with one more year added. In this deal, I paid Brooks a $16.5 million signing bonus with two void years tacked on., with a minimum salary in the first year and a $4.3 million guaranteed salary in Year 2. That leaves $11 million in non-guaranteed salary in 2026 and a $6.6 million dead cap hit in 2027.
Sign Josh Uche for two years, $10 million, with $6.1 million guaranteed
Cap Impact: Costs $3,625,000 in 2024, Costs $6,375,000 in 2025
Uche had a massive year in 2022 with 11.5 sacks but regressed in 2023 despite playing roughly the same number of snaps. This fits the profile of a Vikings signing, and Uche has experience in a New England Patriots front that plays similarly to what Brian Flores does. With Davenport as a starter, I am counting on Uche to be a rotational player. PFF projected Uche with a one-year deal for slightly more, but with the same amount of guaranteed money I gave him here. I gave Uche a $5 million signing bonus and a league minimum guaranteed salary in Year 1, with the rest of the money coming in Year 2.
Sign Zack Moss for two years, $7.5 million, with $4.1 million guaranteed
Cap Impact: Costs $2,625,000 in 2024, Costs $4,875,000 in 2025
The Vikings need to do something different at RB in 2024, because neither Alexander Mattison nor Ty Chandler were good enough to be a starter for the team. The team could spring for one of the RBs at the top of the market, but I would have had to downgrade from Madubuike or Sneed to be able to do that, and I value those positions higher. Moss played well in relief of an injured Jonathan Taylor in 2023, so I went with him. I matched PFF’s per-year average but guaranteed slightly less by giving Moss a $3 million signing bonus and not guaranteeing his $3,375,000 salary in 2025. The Vikings made a significant mistake by guaranteeing $2.75 million for Mattison in 2024, and I don’t want to repeat that error.
Sign Brett Maher for one year, $1.2 million, with $0 guaranteed
Cap Impact: Costs $1,210,000 in 2024
The Vikings need a kicker, and Greg Joseph has been below average in each of his years with the team. I want to bring in an outside player. I don’t believe in paying kickers large contracts unless they are for Justin Tucker. While I don’t think Maher is the answer, he’s a placeholder for another cheap veteran kicker or a rookie.
low-cost tags and re-signings
Tender Exclusive Rights Free-Agent Nick Muse for one year, $985,000, with $0 guaranteed
Cap Impact: Costs $985,000 in 2024
For ERFAs, who are impending free agents with two or fewer accrued seasons, teams simply choose to bring them back on a minimum contract, and it’s done. They don’t even get any guarantees. It’s rough for young, fringe roster players in the NFL. Assuming they want him, Muse will have to join the Vikings in 2024 or choose to not play at all.
Tender Exclusive Rights Free-Agent Theo Jackson for one year, $985,000, with $0 guaranteed
Cap Impact: Costs $985,000 in 2024
Theo Jackson is in the same situation as Muse.
Right of First Refusal Tender Restricted Free-Agent Blake Brandel for one year, $2.8 million, with $0 guaranteed
Cap Impact: Costs $2,828,000 in 2024
Players with three accrued seasons become RFAs instead of ERFAs. The team can tender at four different levels: right of first refusal, original round, second round, and first round. If tendered, the player is free to try to get a contract from another team, but the tendering team has the option to match any deal the player signs. If they choose not to, they get the level of compensation that is in the name of the tender. In this case, the Vikings would not get any compensation if Brandel decided to sign elsewhere, but they would have the opportunity to match any contract he signed.
Sign, but do not tender restricted free-agent Khyiris Tonga for one year, $1.1 million, with $0 guaranteed
Cap Impact: Costs $1,090,000 in 2024
I don’t expect Tonga to have much of a market. I’m trying to pinch pennies a little here, but believe the Vikings will be able to bring him back at the minimum for depth.
Sign Brandon Powell for two years, $5 million, with $2.5 million guaranteed
Cap Impact: Costs $1,812,500 in 2024, Costs $3,187,500 in 2025
The Vikings need depth at WR behind Jefferson and Jordan Addison. I expect K.J. Osborn to be a little too expensive for his production, but I really liked what the Vikings got from Powell last year. I don’t expect Powell to have a strong market, and PFF does not have a projection for him. I gave Powell a minimum salary and signing bonus to add up to $2.5 million in cash in Year 1 of the deal. This deal will retain Powell, who was also the team’s punt returner.
Sign Johnny Mundt for two years, $4 million, with $2.1 million guaranteed
Cap Impact: Costs $1,625,000 in 2024, Costs $2,375,000 in 2025
Mundt was Minnesota’s primary answer as a replacement for T.J. Hockenson, so I want to bring him back in case Hockenson isn’t ready for Week 1. The last time Mundt was a free agent, the Vikings stole him from the Los Angeles Rams, who expected him to sign for the minimum. Sean McVay had his starting TE, Tyler Higbee, suffer the same injury Hockenson did on the same hit against the same player, so he may go back after Mundt. To keep him, I gave Mundt a guaranteed salary in Year 1 and a $1 million signing bonus.
Sign Troy Dye for two years, $2.5 million, with $0 guaranteed
Cap Impact: Costs $1,625,000 in 2024, Costs $2,375,000 in 2025
Dye plays a ton of snaps on special teams and saw the field as the third LB in front of Brian Asamoah last year. I don’t expect him to have a strong market, but this gives him a little over the minimum.
Sign Jonathan Bullard for one year, $2 million, with $0 guaranteed
Cap Impact: Costs $2,000,000 in 2024
Bullard played a ton of snaps and performed well as a run defender last year. At age 30, he has never had a strong market and signed for just over the minimum last year. I expect him to cost a bit more this year due to his increased 2023 workload.
Sign Chris Reed for one year, $1.3 million, with $0 guaranteed
Cap Impact: Costs $1,300,000 in 2024
The Vikings had to use their backup offensive linemen quite a bit last year, and all played reasonably well. None of the players had significant markets before the 2023 season, so I decided to bring Reed and the other two back for contracts matching what they earned in 2023.
Sign Austin Schlottmann for one year, $1.1 million, with $0 guaranteed
Cap Impact: Costs $1,130,000 in 2024
Sign David Quessenberry for one year, $1.1 million, with $0 guaranteed
Cap Impact: Costs $1,125,000 in 2024
Moving on and Salary Cap conversions
Convert Brian O’Neill‘s 2024 Base Salary to a Signing Bonus
Cap Impact: Saves $11,011,765 in 2024, costs $2,775,000 in 2025
One of the easiest ways for a team to create cap space is to convert a player’s salary into a signing bonus, spreading out the cap hit. This works nicely with players you know you want to be a part of the team moving forward, and O’Neill fits that bill. The Vikings made the same move with him last year. O’Neill currently has $15 million in total compensation for 2024, and I converted all of that except a $1.125 million base salary to save money. It should also be noted that to get those savings, I’m also adding two void years to his deal.
Release Harrison Smith
Cap Impact: Saves $11,384,116 in 2024, saves $22,015,884 in 2025
Smith is a legendary Vikings player, but his $14.4 million salary is untenable. I would love for the Vikings to negotiate that number down, but since I don’t have the power to do that, I am going to release him to save a large amount of space.
Release Dean Lowry
Cap Impact: Saves $2,082,353 in 2024, no impact in 2025
Lowry was disappointing and injured last year. This move seems like a no-brainer to me.
There are other moves that I considered but decided not to make. I chose not to tender T.J. Smith, an ERFA, or Cam Akers, an RFA because I viewed the competition as too strong at that position to be valuable. In building a 90-man roster, it may make sense for the Vikings to make those moves. There were also a number of players like D.J. Wonnum, Osborn, Jordan Hicks, and Josh Dobbs who I would be fine with bringing back as rotational pieces but went in a different direction because of cost.
There were some potential cuts that I ignored. I didn’t cut Harrison Phillips or Garrett Bradbury, two names I’ve seen others mention because I think the Vikings would not be able to replace either for the amount saved by releasing them. One of Nick Mullens or Jaren Hall would be gone if Minnesota drafts a rookie QB, but I did not predict that cut. Alexander Mattison would seem like a good candidate after a poor 2023 performance, but he would only save the Vikings $600,000 if they cut him due to guarantees in his contract.
Given the moves above, the Vikings would let the following players walk in free agency:
- Jordan Hicks
- K.J. Osborn
- Greg Joseph
- Joshua Dobbs
- Cam Akers
- Oli Udoh
- Anthony Barr
- Nick Vigil
- Sheldon Day
- Hakeem Adeniji
- James Lynch
- T.J. Smith
results
Here is a summary of all of the moves:
All of these moves leave the Vikings with $630,343 of cap space in 2024 and $2,348,580 in 2025, which is $2,978,923 in 2025 after rolling over the leftover 2024 cap. Please keep in mind that these numbers include all 53 players and practice squad players, and there is going to be about $7 million in wiggle room each year due to rookie contracts, so I am confident the Vikings will be able to stay under the cap for both years with this plan.
So, after all of these moves, what does Minnesota’s 2023 roster look like? I’ve listed the projected 53-man roster this creates, with a 15-player practice squad. As I mentioned above, the drafted rookie QB would replace one of Hall or Mullens, and I would put whichever of those two players gets cut as the 16th practice squad player. The Vikings would then save the difference between their 2024 salary and the practice squad salary to that cap number I have above. I technically have 54 players on the roster below, with the projection that Hockenson starts the season on PUP or IR.
Here is the projected roster:
Changes from the 2023 Vikings include swapping out:
- Zack Moss for Alexander Mattison
- Brandon Powell for K.J. Osborn
- Justin Maubuike for Dean Lowry
- Josh Uche for D.J. Wonnum
- Jordyn Brooks for Jordan Hicks
- L’Jarius Sneed for Harrison Smith
I believe this roster holds serve on offense and is roughly as good as the 2023 offense, but it significantly improves the defensive roster with the free-agent additions.
As a note, the 2023 Vikings ran a three-safety defense, which is rare for the league. I believe Flores wants to put the five best defensive backs on the field most of the time, and that happened to include three safeties for the Vikings. If they lose Harrison Smith and add Sneed, I believe three CBs becomes the way to go for the defense.
Finally, here is a look at the 2025 roster with these contracts. As it’s slated, they only have two non-specialist positions where they need a starter. Young players or draft picks will certainly need to step up, but that’s true of any team one year out:
One eventuality I have not planned for in this projection is the fifth-year option or possible extension for LT Christian Darrisaw. I would expect him to be with the team regardless of free-agent moves over the next two years, so his contract will impact the team’s cap space. There are easy ways, like bonus conversions for O’Neill or Hockenson, to create the cap space for Year 1 of a Darrisaw extension.
This is obviously an extremely aggressive approach to free agency. I am giving out an absurd $627 million in total contract value, including $392 million in guaranteed money. I’m fine with that because I started this exercise with the intent of creating the best possible roster without leveraging the future too hard. These moves would create $176 million in cap hits in 2026 ($15.8 million more if they can’t trade Cousins), which would leave the team with about $50 million in cap space for that season. By 2027, the last of their dead cap hits from void years on free-agent deals would hit, Jefferson, Madubuike, and Murphy would still be on the team, and they would still have a projected $156 million in cap space with a rookie QB contract.
You can easily save money on any of the players above by signing cheaper talent. Madubuike, Brooks, and Sneed are top free agents at their position. I considered corners like Myles Bryant and Sean Murphy-Bunting before deciding I had the money to sign Sneed. Free agency is a choose-your-own-adventure path, so don’t get too caught up on whether or not you like a particular player that I added. The lesson should be that the Vikings can basically do whatever they want in FA.
