Now that Kirk Cousins is headed for the land of sweet tea, pecan pie, and homemade wine, the Minnesota Vikings and their fans are left to contemplate what the future holds for them at the quarterback position. There are still so many questions left to be answered: Will they draft a quarterback in the first round? Will they trade up to do so? Will Sam Darnold be the starter in 2024? Is Nick Mullens the starter in 2024? Is Josh Rosen still on the practice squad? (Ok, that last one was a joke.)
It is easy to get lost in what could be at this time of year. But what should we expect? Given what we know about the Vikings’ plan and who is left available at the position, we can make some educated guesses about what’s coming next. What is fair to expect regarding the quarterback position in 2024 and beyond?
We have heard Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Co. repeatedly say that a “competitive rebuild” is their goal, which eliminates many possibilities at the position. (For the record, Rosen is not a member of the Vikings’ practice squad.) Sam Darnold and the Vikings have agreed to terms on a one-year deal. Therefore, most people assume that Minnesota will be drafting their quarterback of the future in a few weeks. Darnold will start the 2024 season, and the Vikings will evaluate their record and his performance to decide whether to start the rookie later in the season.
Although several Vikings fans have asked whether Nick Mullens is a cheaper bridge option than Darnold, Kevin O’Connell and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah must believe they have identified Mullens’ ceiling and are not interested in him as the starter. They seemed to confirm that by signing Darnold. Using the money in this agreement to give us some context, Darnold has reportedly agreed to a $10 million deal, and Gardner Minshew agreed to a two-year $25 million ($15 million guaranteed) deal with the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday. Darnold is making a relative pittance for a quarterback and is only on a one-year contract. Therefore, the Vikings must have their sights set on the draft.
Minnesota holds the 11th-overall selection in this year’s draft. But if they plan on drafting the heir apparent at quarterback, that might not be early enough to get one of this year’s top prospects. There seems to be a consensus that USC’s Caleb Williams, LSU’s Jayden Daniels, and UNC’s Drake Maye are this class’s top three quarterback prospects. J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, and Michael Penix round out the upper echelon in this year’s group.
The Chicago Bears will likely take Caleb Williams first overall, and the Washington Commanders have the second pick and need a quarterback as well. The New England Patriots may also take a quarterback at No. 3 overall, and the Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Raiders are searching for their long-term solutions at signal-caller. Therefore, they could be looking for trade partners in the top ten.
Without making a deal to move up into the top 10, Minnesota might have to settle for a project-type prospect, which could be the kind of disaster that costs the GM and head coach their jobs. The Vikings will likely take a quarterback early, and fans shouldn’t be surprised if Adofo-Mensah attempts to maneuver into the top 10 to get one of the top three quarterbacks.
So, what does that mean for the 2024 season? What’s fair for Vikings fans to expect from the team and, specifically, the quarterback? They brought in Darnold to stay competitive. Minnesota went 4-4 last year after Kirk Cousins went down. They competed for a playoff spot late into the season with a quarterback combination of Nick Mullens, Josh Dobbs, and Jaren Hall.
Darnold isn’t as good as Cousins, but there is reason to believe he could be better than Dobbs, Hall, and Mullens. In addition, the Vikings brought in defensive players on Monday, and it seems the hope is that Darnold will play well enough for the team to be in playoff contention in 2024. That would allow the Vikings to ease the rookie in as a starter in 2025 (and begin their dynasty?).
If Darnold plays poorly early on in 2024 and the Vikings lose games because of the quarterback, the fans and media will ask for the rookie. That kind of pressure doesn’t help anyone, so it’s fair to assume that Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell believe Darnold can play well enough to alleviate most of that pressure. Therefore, unless the rookie is so good immediately that the Vikings have no choice but to start him in Game 1, fans should expect fringe playoff contention with eight or nine wins for the season, a really good defense, and mediocre quarterback play.
Sound familiar?
